Red Sox series preview: Payroll flexibility and mediocrity
On to the Green Monster!
The Oakland Athletics popularized sabermetrics and analytics in baseball, but it was the Red Sox that welded stats to money and launched the most successful era in club history in nearly a century with four championships in a 15-year period.
The last five seasons have been much more ordinary for the Sox. They’ve reached the playoffs just once since winning it all in 2018, with two losing seasons in the mix. They had a solid core, but opted to trade away Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi, and let shortstop Xander Bogaerts walk via free agency in order to preserve payroll flexibility. This year they have the 12th-highest payroll in baseball and they have less than $140 million in commitments for next year. But that is little solace to the fanbase as they have watched the Red Sox sink to last place with a record barely over .500, with almost no shot of winning a title this year.
Kansas City Royals (36-77) vs. Boston Red Sox (57-54) at Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Royals: 3.89 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 5.33 runs allowed/game (28th)
Red Sox: 4.89 runs scored/game (7th in MLB), 4.66 runs allowed/game (19th)
Despite letting some big hitting stars go, the offense has performed well this year, although they’ve struggled lately with three or fewer runs in eight of their last nine games. They have eight hitters with 100+ plate appearances and an OPS+ over 100. Japanese rookie Masataka Yoshida has had a terrific debut season in the States, and centerfielder Jarren Duran has turned a corner with 32 doubles, second-most in the American League. The Red Sox have gotten virtually no production from their middle infielders offensively or defensively.
Boston is no longer a three true outcomes lineup. They draw the eighth-fewest walks and are in the middle of the league in home runs despite playing in Fenway Park, where only about half of their home runs have been hit.
The pitching staff is the third-oldest in baseball, but it features a few young starters like 24-year-old Brayan Bello and 27-year-old Kutter Crawford. Bello has gone 5+ innings in 14 of his 18 starts this year, relying on a sinker and change to induce a 56.2 percent groundball rate. Crawford has a 94 mph fastball and a cutter, and has enjoyed one of the best chase rates in baseball. Since the All-Star break, he has given up just five runs in four starts, with opponents hitting .169/.244/.282 against him.
Veteran lefty James Paxton has bounced back from missing virtually all of the last two seasons to post his best ERA since 2017. His fastball now sits at 95-96 with a good curve, but he gave up three home runs in his last start at home against the Blue Jays. Boston has not yet announced a starter for Thursday, and Nick Pivetta has bounced between the rotation and bullpen this year. He has a 5.89 ERA as a starter this year, so the Red Sox may use an opener with Pivetta as the bulk guy instead.
Boston relievers have a 4.02 ERA, near the league average. They have the fourth-fewest strikeouts in baseball but the seventh-fewest walks. Closer Kenley Jansen has the most career saves among any active pitcher with 415, adding 24 more this year. He has not blown a save since mid-May and still has one of the best cutters in the game. Right-hander Chris Martin has the ninth-lowest walk rate among qualified relievers. Josh Winckowski, acquired from the Mets in the three-way trade that netted Andrew Benintendi for the Royals, has found success this year as a reliever, amping his fastball up to 96 mph.
The Red Sox largely stood pat at the trade deadline and have now lost four in a row to sink to last place. They still have some very talented players, but seem stuck in no man’s land, between building with young players but not quite committing to a youth movement. Maybe a year or two from now we’ll look back at this year as an important one to develop their core. But right now they seem like a team without an identity, ripe for the Royals to steal a series.