ESPN Estimates Shohei Ohtani’s ‘True Value’ To Be Nearly $800 Million

With a relatively weak free agent class, the eyes of the entire baseball world will turn to the best player in the game, Shohei Ohtani this offseason. Ohtani is in the midst of another historic season for the Angels. He leads the American League (and is second in MLB behind Matt Olson) with 41 home runs, and is slashing a remarkable .302/.405/.657. As a pitcher, his 3.17 ERA ranks just outside of the top ten in baseball, and he ranks seventh in the majors in strikeouts with 165.

Ohtani is a sure bet to receive the richest contract in baseball history this offseason, and he will have a plethora of suitors, likely including the Angels, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Giants, Padres, Mariners, Cubs, and maybe more. But just how much is Ohtani actually worth?

ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle attempted to use statistics to come up with a fair price for the two-way superstar. When combining Ohtani’s ability to get on base, hit for power, and run the bases with his ability to throw three pitches (a 4-seamer, splitter, and sweeper) at an above-average level, Doolittle calculates that Ohtani is worth a staggering $76 million per season. When broken up over the course of a 12-year contract, the would add up to be $912 million. When factoring in a projected decline in skills over the length of the contract, Doolittle shaved off $122 million for a final estimate of $789.7 million over 12 years, or over $65 million per season.

As Doolittle notes, it’s highly unlikely that Ohtani will actually get a contract worth that amount, as no owner, not even Steve Cohen, is likely to offer a contract of close to a billion dollars. However, Doolittle notes that Ohtani’s value is similar to the likes of Trea Turner as a hitter, who received a $300 million deal with the Phillies, and Gerritt Cole as a pitcher, who received a $324 million with the Yankees. If a team were to combine those two deals, Ohtani could still be worth well over $600 million.

The richest contract in MLB history is Mike Trout‘s $426 million extension with the Angels. Could Ohtani really surpass that amount by almost $200 million? It doesn’t feel likely, but there’s also never been a talent like his before in baseball history. As long as Ohtani does not suffer a debilitating injury in the season’s final two months, he is going to shatter the all-time contract record.

Ohtani’s price tag may scare off some teams, but the Mets shouldn’t be one of them. While it remains to be seen how willing Steve Cohen is to spend big on free agency again this offseason, and if Ohtani would even consider coming to Queens, the Mets certainly have the financial resources to land MLB’s top player, should the stars align.

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