Formation of 2 tropical depressions looking more likely; system may develop in Gulf

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two disturbances nearing the central Atlantic that could potentially become tropical depressions and a third system that is forecast to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical wave located about 900 miles west-southwest of Cabo Verde Islands early Thursday is producing disorganized showers. Forecasters said that it could become a tropical depression in the next few days as it moves west or west-northwest at 10 mph. As of 8 a.m., it had a 40% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 60% chance in the next seven days.

Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure located south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, associated with a tropical wave, is creating a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Forecasters said it could form into a tropical depression over the weekend, though conditions will be less favorable for development early next week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward between 10 to 15 mph. Its odds of developing as of 8 a.m. Thursday were at 30% in the 48 hours and 60% in the next seven days, an increase from Wednesday.

Forecasters are also watching for the development of a broad area of low pressure in the central or western Gulf of Mexico that could form by the beginning of next week. Slow development is possible as it moves west toward Texas and Mexico. It has a 30% chance of developing in the next seven days, up from 20% earlier in the week.

The next named storm would be Emily.

The National Hurricane Center is now predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season, increasing the likelihood from only a 30% chance in its last outlook to a 60% chance going forward.

The update announced last week came as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, is now calling for 14-21 named storms, including 6-11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.