Spain vs England: FIFA Women’s World Cup final betting preview

ENGLAND have made it through to the Women’s World Cup final on Sunday where they’ll take on old enemies Spain. The Lionesses roared to victory in the semi-final against co-hosts Australia, while Spain scraped past Sweden.

How did those performances affect the Women’s World Cup odds? We’ll reveal all, along with a few football betting tips, in this Spain vs England preview.

Spain vs England odds

Here are the latest match odds for Spain vs England from our selection of top football bookmakers:

Spain vs England betting preview

Spain against England is a close call in almost every department. Indeed, you only have to look at the latest Women’s World Cup match odds to see that bookmakers across the UK are struggling to separate these two teams. On the one hand, Spain performed better in the group stage and, at times, looked like they could score goals at will. 

On the other hand, England’s finest have championship pedigree thanks to a win in the 2022 UEFA European Women’s Championship. In fact, England had to beat Spain in the quarter-finals on route to winning the title. This result could loom large in the mind of Spanish manager Jorge Vilda and his team. 

Quick Betting tips for the Women’s World Cup finals

• Over 3.5 goals – 7/2 at Spreadex
• Lauren Hemp first goal scorer – 7/1 at William Hill
• Game to be decided in extra time – 11/2 at bet365

Spanish rift could upset World Cup final performance

Something else that could play into the psychology of this year’s Women’s World Cup final is the apparent rift between Vilda and certain players in the Spanish team. 15 players wrote to the Spanish Football Federation (RFEF) in September 2022 demanding Vilda be sacked citing an impact on their collective mental health. 

Almost a year has passed since those demands were rebuffed by the RFEF, but tension remains. Alexia Putellas was seen slapping away the manager’s hand after being substituted with 30 minutes left in Spain’s semi-final match against Sweden. The Barcelona midfielder later refused to shake Vilda’s hand for a second time, suggesting that there may still be an underlying problem. 

To Vilda’s credit, Putellas’ replacement, Salma Paralluelo, went on to score. However, there’s a sense heading into the Women’s World Cup final against England that Spain’s finest are playing in spite of Vilda, rather than for him. That could be a problem. If England force the pace and Spain are required to change tactics, are the players going to respond positively to Vilda’s decisions? 

Cross could decide Spain against England showdown

Another thing that could play into England’s hands on Sunday is the fact Spain look vulnerable in defence. Conceding four goals to Japan in the group stage means there are cracks players such as Ella Toone and Lauren Hemp can exploit. Looking back at Spain’s semi-final against Sweden, the biggest defensive leak appeared to be from crosses.

Balls from out wide were routinely finding their way into the danger zone and, had it not been for a poor attacking performance from Sweden, the result could have been a lot different. As it transpired, Sweden’s Rebecka Blomqvist scored from a cross. So in this regard, Spain’s defence only really crumbled once to the point it was a problem.

It’s also important to note that most of England’s best moments in the win over Australia involved through-balls down the middle. Attacking plays down the flanks were seldom effective, which means Spain’s apparent weakness in defending crosses might not be exploited on Sunday. This could be why the Spain v England betting odds are tilted slightly in the former’s favour. 

For all of Spain’s defensive frailties, England’s backline was far from steadfast. Spain’s attacking play from the wings could be dangerous and Alex Greenwood, Millie Bright and Jess Carter will need to be better during Sunday’s finale. Indeed, were it not for the Aussie’s lack of firepower up front, England could have easily lost the semi-final. 

Shots fired: who will strike first?

A final point to consider when you’re sizing up the latest Women’s World Cup betting odds is shooting. Specifically, Spain didn’t have a shot on target until the 80^th minute of the semi-final against Sweden. This could offer England a reprieve from the pressure they might face from balls flying in at different angles. 

Yes, Spain can be a threat moving forward, but they aren’t as deadly when it comes to finishing an offensive move. Maybe it was an off night against Sweden, but we can’t ignore the fact it was left to full-back Olga Carmona to secure Spain’s second goal. Have Spanish strikers Alba Redondo and Maria Caldentey got the ability to score? Of course, but they’ll need to improve if they’re going to do it against England. 

As for the Lionesses, they looked strong going through the middle, but it’s their willingness to shoot from distance that could prove problematic for Spain. Toone et al weren’t afraid to take chances during the semi-final against Australia. This suggests there’s a belief among England’s players. A self-confidence that could carry them to their first Women’s World Cup title on Sunday.  

Spain vs England key stats

We’ve given you a breakdown of the possible ways each time can win on Sunday, but statistics never lie. The following facts could help you make the right call when Spain take on England in the Women’s World Cup final:

• England scored 13 goals on route to the Women’s World Cup final. Spain scored 17 goals. 
• England’s biggest tally in a single World Cup game this year is six when they beat China 6-1 in the group stage. Spain’s biggest tally in a single World Cup game this year is five. They’ve hit that target twice, once beating Switzerland 5-1 and once beating Zambia 5-0.
• Spain’s heaviest defeat in the 2023 Women’s World Cup was 4-0 to Japan. England are yet to lose in this World Cup. 
• Spain made 518 passes and achieved a 78% accuracy rating during the semi-final match against Sweden. England completed 480 passes and achieved an 83% accuracy rating during the semi-final match against Australia. 
• England had 15 shots, five on target, and three goals in the game against Australia. Spain had 13 shots, two on target, and two goals in the game against Sweden. 

Spain vs England best bets

We’ve run through some stats, and broken down both team’s strengths and weaknesses, now it’s time to piece everything together. Based on what we’ve said and the latest World Cup betting markets, these three wagers seem to have some potential…

Over 3.5 goals – 7/2 at Spreadex

Elite teams often cancel each other out in big games, so betting the over on 3.5 goals is a bold move. However, we’ve seen already in this Women’s World Cup that Spain and England can both score. Even though the accuracy ratings for both teams haven’t been exceptional, they’ve notched up impressive tallies when things are flowing. Indeed, with Spain scoring five times in two different games and England getting six against China, the final could be a goal-fest. Assuming both teams play for the win, 7/2 on over 3.5 goals doesn’t look like a bad bet. 

Place the over 3.5 goals bet at 7/2 at Spreadex

Lauren Hemp first goal scorer – 7/1 at William Hill

Hemp was one of the players most willing to shoot from distance against Sweden. This desire to score helped her find the back of the net in that game, which suggests there’s value in her at 7/1. However, it’s worth noting that she’s only 23 and has just 13 goals for England in three years. The positive, however, is that she scored six times in 2022. With her 2023 tally at three goals, she’s certainly got scope to bag a few more goals against Spain. 

Bet on Lauren Hemp as the first goal scorer at 7/1 with William Hill

Game to be decided in extra time – 11/2 at bet365

This Spain vs. England bet can be considered a longshot, but bear with us. Spain took 80 minutes to get a shot on target against Sweden. That shot resulted in a goal and, within a short space of time, a second. This tells us Spain are strong late in games. The same can be said for England. Lauren Hemp and Alessia Russo scored in the 71^st and 86^th minute, respectively. Therefore, if the match goes into extra time, we could see a fierce battle that may result in one team clinching the win before penalties. 

Bet on the game to be decided in extra time at 11/2 with bet365

How to watch Spain vs England

• Location: Stadium Australia, Sydney.
• Time: Kick-off on Sunday August 20, 2023, at 11am BST 
• Where to watch: ITV and BBC (also ITV and BBC Sport websites, as well as iPlayer and ITVX app)

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