Maryland Terrapins Preview, Predictions & Season Win Total Pick

With a 3-31 heading coaching record, there was no shortage of doubters when Maryland hired former assistant and DC native Mike Locksley. But after a rough start (3-9 in 2019), he’s got the Terps racing in the right direction with 15 wins over the past seasons. Their eight victories in 2023 were the most since the Ralph Friedgen era (2010). Over the past four cycles, Maryland has finished between 18 and 36 in recruiting (per the 247Sports composite), which is Locksley’s forte. Getting talent has never been a problem, and now the record is catching up to the recruiting rankings.Maryland Terrapins Preview

2022 Record: 8-5 (4-5); Big Ten Finish: 4th in B1G East

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 40

Head Coach: Mike Locksley: 21-28 (11-27) | 5th Season | Overall: 23-54

Co-Offensive Coordinator: Josh Gattis (1st Season), Kevin Sumlin (1st Season)

Defensive Coordinator: Brian Williams (3rd Season, 5th w/Maryland)

Maryland Terrapins Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +25000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +8500

B1G Championship Odds: +7000 | B1G East Odds: +4000

Win 6+ Games: -750 | Undefeated Regular Season: +10000

Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 -110 | UNDER 7.5 -110

Big Ten Previews: Indiana | Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State | Penn State | Rutgers |

Maryland Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

In Taulia Tagovailoa, the Terps have the program’s all-time leader in passing yards, total offense, touchdown passes, total TDs, completions, 300-yard games, and passing efficiency. He’s the Big Ten’s most experienced quarterback, and his 67.4 completion percentage would be a career conference record. No wonder an SEC program offered him $1.5 million to transfer. He leads a passing attack that has no shortage of weapons. Back are their two leading pass catchers, Jeshaun Jones and tight end Corey Dyches, with transfers Kaden Prather and Tyrese Chambers ready to contribute. Stellar running back Roman Hemby added 298 yards through the air, and sophomore Shaleak Knotts is a breakout candidate.

Terrapins Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

The trenches. Maryland had five players drafted last season, and two came from the offensive line, as the Terps must replace four of five starters. They hit the portal hard for reinforcements, with former four-star recruit OT Marcus Dumervil from LSU joining the fold. Second-team All-MEAC guard Corey Bullock and first-team DII All-American tackle Gottlieb Ayedze are expected to start with grad transfer Mike Purcell (All-CAA at Elon) in the two-deep mix. None of these newcomers are proven at this level, and much chemistry needs to be developed quickly. At the very least, it’s a cause for concern. The D-line (more below) is replacing all four starters.

Breakout Player(s): Jordan Phillips & Tommy Akingbesote

Their top six interior linemen from 2022 have moved on, so there’s no shortage of opportunities for breakout candidates, which is why we’re giving you two Terps for the price of one. Expected to handle the nose is 295-pound redshirt freshman Jordan Phillips, a Tennessee transfer who has everyone in College Park excited about his potential. He will line up next to junior Tommy Akingbesote, a top-150 recruit in the class of 2021. Hefty (315 pounds) and mobile, Akingbesote started to flash his ability as last season went on and recorded his second career sack in his first start against Wisconsin.

X-Factor: Pass D New Starters

Maryland will also have to replace both starting edge rushers and a pair of cornerbacks who were taken in the 2023 NFL Draft, including first-round pick Deonte Banks. CB Ja’Quan Sheppard from Cincinnati was a great addition, while there’s confidence that Corey Coley Jr. and NB Tarheeb Still are ready for primetime duty. If they can keep the secondary steady and the Terps improve their pass rush, the defensive assent under second-year coordinator Brian Williams should continue. D-end Quashon Fuller, whom they added from Florida State last offseason, flashed promise. They also brought in Donnell Brown (All-NEC) and Christian Teague (All-MEAC) to improve their depth. Maryland went from 249.5 PYPG, 7.9 YPP, and 22 TD passes allowed in 2021 to 223.3, 6.2, and 17 last season despite just 24 sacks. Regression in Pass D could mean a regression in their record.

Maryland Preview Schedule Analysis

Stop me if you’ve heard this before… it’s not easy living in the Big Ten East, but other than the trio of Michigan, (at) Ohio State, and Penn State, it’s a manageable schedule, as they may not play any other ranked teams. The Terps avoid the B1G West’s top two teams (Wisconsin and Iowa), and with Towson, Charlotte, and Virginia all coming to College Park, their out-of-conference winning streak should improve to 11. I expect them to beat Indiana, Northwestern, and Rutgers, which leaves at Michigan State, vs. Illinois, and at Nebraska as “toss-up” games for the Terps.

Maryland Preview Prediction: OVER/UNDER 7.5 Wins

If the Terps win two of those three toss-up games, would they reach eight regular-season wins? They should, but last year’s team lost five games, including a home loss to Purdue, and were pushed around by Wisconsin‘s worst team in years. That doesn’t even include closer-than-should-have-been wins over Indiana (38-33) and Northwestern (31-24), games they trailed in the fourth quarter. Some bettors jumped on this OVER at seven, which I liked, but at 7.5, I don’t trust Maryland not to get upset in one game and lose another in the trenches, especially with so much upheaval on both lines of scrimmage.

Maryland Preseason Pick

No Pick – Lean: OVER 7.5 (-110)