National has released its 2023 List, which is below.
1
Christopher Luxon
Botany
2
Nicola Willis
Ōhāriu
3
Chris Bishop
Hutt South
4
Shane Reti
Whangārei
5
Paul Goldsmith
Epsom
6
Louise Upston
Taupō
7
Erica Stanford
East Coast Bays
8
Matt Doocey
Waimakariri
9
Simeon Brown
Pakuranga
10
Judith Collins
Papakura
11
Mark Mitchell
Whangaparāoa
12
Todd McClay
Rotorua
13
Melissa Lee
Mt Albert
14
Gerry Brownlee
List
15
Andrew Bayly
Port Waikato
16
Penny Simmonds
Invercargill
17
Simon Watts
North Shore
18
Chris Penk
Kaipara ki Mahurangi
19
Nicola Grigg
Selywn
20
Nancy Lu
List
21
Suze Redmayne
Rangitīkei
22
Katie Nimon
Napier
23
Catherine Wedd
Tukituki
24
Tama Potaka
Hamilton West
25
Agnes Loheni
List
26
Maureen Pugh
West Coast-Tasman
27
Emma Chatterton
Remutaka
28
James Christmas
List
29
Dale Stephens
Christchurch Central
30
Siva Kilari
Manurewa
31
Harete Hipango
Te Tai Hauāuru
32
Rosemary Bourke
Māngere
33
Frances Hughes
Mana
34
Paulo Garcia
New Lynn
35
Blair Cameron
Nelson
36
Barbara Kuriger
Taranaki-King Country
37
Tracy Summerfield
Wigram
38
Hinurewa te Hau
Tāmaki Makaurau
39
Angee Nicholas
Te Atatū
40
Vanessa Weenink
Banks Peninsula
41
Rima Nakhle
Takanini
42
Ruby Schaumkel
Kelston
43
Mahesh Muralidhar
Auckland Central
44
Dana Kirkpatrick
East Coast
45
Scott Sheeran
Wellington Central
46
Navtej Singh Randhawa
Panmure-Ōtāhuhu
47
Carl Bates
Whanganui
48
Carlos Cheung
Mt Roskill
49
Matthew French
Taieri
50
Matt Stock
Christchurch East
51
Karunā Muthu
Rongotai
52
Ankit Bansal
Palmerston North
53
Joseph Mooney
Southland
54
Simon O’Connor
Tāmaki
55
Scott Simpson
Coromandel
56
Stuart Smith
Kaikōura
57
Sam Uffindell
Tauranga
58
Tim van de Molen
Waikato
59
Miles Anderson
Waitaki
60
Dan Bidois
Northcote
61
Mike Butterick
Wairarapa
62
Cameron Brewer
Upper Harbour
63
Hamish Campbell
Ilam
64
Tim Costley
Ōtaki
65
Greg Fleming
Maungakiekie
66
Ryan Hamilton
Hamilton East
67
David MacLeod
New Plymouth
68
Grant McCallum
Northland
69
James Meager
Rangitata
70
Tom Rutherford
Bay of Plenty
71
Felicity Foy
List
72
Janelle Hocking
List
73
Kesh Naidoo-Rauf
List
74
Senthuran Arulanantham
List
To work out who may get in, we need to make assumptions over which seats National wins. These are not prediction, just an explicit assumption. National won 23 seats in 2020. They also won Hamilton West. There are 12 seats they were less than 4,500 votes behind Labour – Northland, Whangarei, Maungakiekie, Tukituki, Upper Harbour, Northcote, New Plymouth, Hamilton East, Otaki, Ilam, Hutt South and Rangitata. If they win all of those that is 36 electorate seats.
The last three polls all have National at 35%. The number of seats will depend on the wasted vote but let’s say that gets them 46 seats. so who would come in on the list:
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