Ira Winderman: Would Damian Lillard deliver a Messi-like effect to Heat? Breaking it down

For months, speculation swirled regarding Messi, Inter Miami and The Messi Effect. A month later, we have our answer in all its South Florida beautiful-game glory.

For months (yes, now, months), speculation has swirled regarding Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard, the Miami Heat and a potential Lillard Lift.

But for a team coming off a trip to the NBA Finals, its second in four years, and for a player who has not been out of the first round of the playoffs since 2019, exactly how would Dame D.O.L.L.A. provide his own payoff to the Heat roster?

The Sun Sentinel checked in with a Western Conference scout this past week with such questions, appreciating the need for anonymity regarding a player under contract to another team.

Simply put: How would a Heat trade for Damian Lillard impact some of the leading players currently on Erik Spoelstra’s roster (factoring that some of the names below likely would have to be sent out in such a deal)?

The Core

Bam Adebayo: “He’ll make a living on pick-and-roll lobs from Lillard. I mean, he’s gonna have a real pathway to the basket, I think. He’s going to open up a lot of stuff as the roller, whether as a lob threat or catching and doing whatever. I think it’s going to be a significant boost for Adebayo, because it opens up a lot of different offensive opportunities.”

Jimmy Butler: “It’ll be a lot less of having to do it every single time on every possession. Clearly, Lillard is another go-to guy. It should reduce the workload, the pressure. He can carry a team like Jimmy can. So just in terms of workload, a lot less pressure for Jimmy, who will be playing more off the ball, for sure. And Dame will make it work. You talk to the Portland coaches about Lillard, this guy was like a god, character-wise. Their coaches used to just rave about his leadership.”

Kevin Love: “First, Dame is the great spacer of all time. Him and (Stephen) Curry are the game’s great spacers, all the way out to 34 feet. So with Love, you’re going to have to pick your poison. You trap Lillard and Love is there for an open 3-pointer. It’s like he’s back playing with Kyrie (Irving) and LeBron (James) in Cleveland.”

Caleb Martin: “He’s another spot-up guy. Swing it once and his guy is going to be hedging on Lillard. He’s going to have nothing but close-out situations to go against. And he’ll have a lot of opportunities to drive off those close outs. That’s what he does so well.”

Other core pieces (if not dealt for Lillard)

Duncan Robinson: “You can see where he would be back to where he was in the playoffs and his first seasons. Lillard draws the attention; Robinson makes the wide-open threes. It’s not any more complicated than that. And other teams will live with that, because they want the ball out of Lillard’s hands.”

Kyle Lowry: “You could absolutely see him working as the backup. That’s where he excels now. I thought he showed in the playoffs he had a little left there, in that backup role. He’s not done. You just don’t want to play him 32 minutes.”

Tyler Herro: “I don’t see how he doesn’t go out in such a trade. But for your exercise, he would be impacted. With Lillard, it’s going to reduce his usage rate to significantly less. As they say, once you see Paris, it’s hard to go back to the farm.”

Jaime Jaquez Jr.: “Lillard is like the ultimate pro. Putting a young player next to him in practice is nothing but a win-win situation. Lillard carries instant respect.”

Nikola Jovic: “Same thing. You want young players to see what it takes. They’ll see that.”

Supporting pieces

Josh Richardson: “He’s not a spot-up guy, so I’m not sure of a specific fit. The impact with him is a little cloudier. You could see him in when Lillard is out.”

Thomas Bryant: “He’s like Kevin Love. Thomas Bryant can make a three. So he sets the pick, you’re going to double Lillard. Thomas Bryant is going to get a lot of open threes.”

(The other two players currently under standard contract to the Heat are Haywood Highsmith and Orlando Robinson.)

IN THE LANE

MEASURED WORDS: With speculation a season of its own in sports, the Damian Lillard rumor mill has left more than a few measuring their words this summer, be it Lillard teammates in Portland or even those who might (or might not) become his teammates with the Heat. Recently, that put Blazers guard Anfernee Simons somewhat on the spot at his youth camp in the Portland area. “Like I always say, I never get myself involved in anything, like other than it involving me directly,” Simons told The Oregonian. “So, whatever is being said in the media is what I’m learning, too. A lot of people ask me that question all the time, obviously. Like, ‘What’s going on with Dame?’ I say, ‘They said he asked for a trade, he asked for a trade.’ So, that was it. Obviously, me and Dame have a close relationship. I’m always going to support him no matter what he decides to do.” Of a potential Lillard trade from Portland, Simons added, “Obviously, it’s going to be a sad day for sure. I was hoping one day I’ll ask for a signed jersey when he retired from Portland. But if he ends up somewhere else, then I’m going to have to ask for it before.”

EASIER TRAIL: Yes, 17 teams will travel fewer than the 44,172 miles the Heat will traverse over the 80 games of the 2023-24 schedule released Thursday by the NBA. But that also represents a significant reduction in terms of what used to be, according to the Positive Residual website that tracks such matters. According to that analytical breakdown, that is down from the 71,881 miles the Heat traveled in 2001-02, the first year the website began tracking such mileage. Assisting in the Heat’s lighter travel load are consecutive road games against both the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons, as well as consecutive games in New York against the Knicks and Nets, and then in Los Angeles against the Lakers and then Clippers. Those, alone, are four road games that require no air travel. Per Positive Residual, the Heat have the seventh-easiest schedule in terms of opponents’ 2022-23 winning percentage.

WHY IT MATTERS: The unveiling of the 2023-24 regular-season schedule likely drew a collective yawn from the Heat roster, considering how they advanced to the NBA Finals as a No. 7 seed. On the opposite end of the spectrum is a Los Angeles Clippers roster that load managed seemingly throughout the 2022-23 season, avoided the play-in round by one game, then was dismissed 4-1 by the Phoenix Suns in the opening round of the playoffs. That has coach Tyronn Lue with a decidedly different perspective on the regular season. “The biggest thing for us is making sure our players are healthy and making sure that we’re doing right by the players, But with that being said, we’ve also got to take the regular season more serious as far as coming in and playing hard every night and winning games and playing games,” Lue told The Los Angeles Times. “Our fans deserve that. They’ve been behind us for a long time and like I said, there have been some unfortunate injuries that we’ve had. That’s part of the game. When we are healthy and we are feeling good, then we’ve got to make sure that we’re trying to play every single night.”

HIGH PRAISE: During an appearance on Gilbert Arenas‘ podcast, Golden State Warriors forward Andre Iguodala took time this past week to lavish praise on former Heat teammate Jimmy Butler. “You always look back and say, ‘How is Jimmy getting it done?’ He can’t shoot threes. He can’t go left,” Iguodala said. “I’m saying whatever they say about Jimmy, he figured it out. I’ve seen him dribble with his right hand left and pull up for a three, against Milwaukee this year. We was going crazy. He’s probably the closest that I’ve seen to Kobe Bryant with that mentality of just, ‘Man, Jimmy will figure out a way for us to win.’ I’ve never seen a will like that. I’m like this dude got a Kobe Bryant will, a will to him to win.”

NUMBER

16. Consecutive days in Florida for the Heat in December, with six home games and one in Orlando from Dec. 12 through Dec. 27.