Forecasters monitor Hurricane Franklin, two other systems as Tropical Depression Ten approaches Gulf

As Tropical Depression Ten moved toward the Gulf of Mexico Saturday, forecasters monitored three other systems, including Hurricane Franklin. A potential tropical wave was added to that list on Friday afternoon.

Franklin will likely become a major hurricane early next week, forecasters said in the 5 p.m. advisory. The hurricane formed earlier in the day, the second hurricane of the Atlantic season. Hurricane Don formed in late July but was no threat to land. Franklin’s path does not show it making landfall either, as it moves along the Atlantic near the east coast of the U.S.

As of 5 p.m. Saturday, Franklin was moving north-northwest at 8 mph about 280 miles northeast of Grand Turk Island and 610 miles south of Bermuda. It is expected to continue moving north-northwest with steady strengthening over the next few days, and could become a major hurricane early next week, the first major hurricane this year.  Hurricane-force winds extended up to 25 miles from the center of the storm and maximum sustained winds had increased to 85 mph from 75 mph earlier in the day.

The storm is expected to move to the west of Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.

African coastal system

The disturbance several hundred miles to the east-northeast of the far eastern Caribbean could develop into a tropical depression early next week. It is expected to move northwest over the central tropical Atlantic.

The hurricane center said the disturbance’s circulation had become better defined, and conditions may be conducive for development this weekend. The system could slowly develop into a tropical depression by early next week. It is expected to move into the central tropical Atlantic.

As of 2 p.m. Saturday, it had a 20% chance of developing within 48 hours and 30% within seven days, slightly lower than earlier in the day.

Tropical wave off coast of Africa

Forecasters are also monitoring a tropical wave forecast to move off the west coast of Africa early next week. As of 2 p.m., it had a 20% chance of forming in the next seven days.

The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14-21 named storms, including 6-11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.