Super Typhoon Goring lingers off Aurora; LPA outside PAR now a tropical depression
MANILA, Philippines – Rainfall and wind warnings remained in effect as Super Typhoon Goring (Saola) maintained its generally slow pace over the Philippine Sea on Sunday afternoon, August 27.
Goring was last spotted 95 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, slowly moving south southeast.
It continues to have maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h and gustiness of up to 230 km/h.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 5 pm on Sunday that Goring will begin heading east in the next 12 hours.
Afterwards, the super typhoon will turn northeast and north on Monday, August 28, before shifting northwest on Tuesday, August 29. Its track will essentially form a loop over the sea.
Rain from Goring will persist in the following areas, with floods and landslides still possible:
Sunday afternoon, August 27, to Monday afternoon, August 28
- Greater than 200 millimeters (mm): extreme eastern part of Isabela, northern part of Aurora
- 100-200 mm: eastern part of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela
- 50-100 mm: Ilocos Region, Apayao, Abra, Benguet, rest of Aurora, eastern part of Nueva Vizcaya, rest of mainland Cagayan, rest of Isabela
Monday afternoon, August 28, to Tuesday afternoon, August 29
- 50-100 mm: eastern part of Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan
Tuesday afternoon, August 29, to Wednesday afternoon, August 30
- 100-200 mm: Batanes, eastern part of Babuyan Islands
- 50-100 mm: rest of Babuyan Islands, northern part of mainland Cagayan
Meanwhile, these areas are under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 pm on Sunday:
Signal No. 3
Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property
- eastern part of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Dinapigue)
- extreme northern part of Aurora (Dilasag)
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property
- eastern part of mainland Cagayan (Peñablanca, Baggao, Gattaran, Lal-lo, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Santa Ana, Enrile, Tuguegarao City)
- central part of Isabela (Maconacon, Cabagan, Tumauini, San Pablo, Benito Soliven, San Guillermo, Jones, Echague, San Agustin, Angadanan, Cauayan City, Naguilian, Gamu, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Quirino, Burgos, Reina Mercedes, Alicia, Luna, Quezon, Mallig, Roxas, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, San Mateo, San Isidro, San Mariano, Ilagan City)
- northern part of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan)
- eastern part of Quirino (Maddela)
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property
- Batanes
- rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- rest of Aurora
- rest of Quirino
- rest of Isabela
- Apayao
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Ifugao
- Mountain Province
- Kalinga
- Abra
- eastern part of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Vintar, Carasi, Nueva Era, Banna, Marcos, Dingras, Solsona, Piddig, Dumalneg, Bangui)
- Polillo Islands
- eastern part of Benguet (Bokod, Buguias, Kabayan, Mankayan)
- eastern part of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, Bongabon, Gabaldon, Laur, Rizal)
- Calaguas Islands
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Goring also continues to enhance the southwest monsoon or habagat, which could cause floods and landslides, too.
PAGASA warned of monsoon rain or frequent, heavy rain in Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and the northern part of Palawan.
Occasional rain is hitting the rest of Luzon and Western Visayas, while scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are seen in the rest of the Visayas.
Mindanao may also have isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
The enhanced southwest monsoon is triggering gusty conditions in these areas as well:
Sunday, August 27
- Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin
Monday, August 28
- Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, most of Zamboanga Peninsula
Tuesday, August 29
- Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, most of Zamboanga Peninsula
Due to the effects of both Goring and the enhanced southwest monsoon, PAGASA issued a new gale warning at 5 pm on Sunday, covering these seaboards:
- eastern seaboard of Northern Luzon (Isabela, eastern coast of Cagayan) – rough to high seas, with waves 3.1 to 6.5 meters high
- northern seaboard of Northern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Central Luzon (Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, northern coast of Cagayan, northern coast of Ilocos Norte, Aurora) – rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.8 to 5 meters high
- eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon (northern coast of Quezon including Polillo Islands), western and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon (Palawan, Romblon, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro), western seaboard of Visayas (Antique) – rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high
The weather bureau advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves.
By Wednesday evening, August 30, or early Thursday morning, August 31, Goring could make landfall in the southern part of Taiwan.
It is expected to maintain its super typhoon status until it hits Taiwan, which is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Afterwards, “interaction with Taiwan’s rugged terrain” may cause Goring to weaken. It is likely to emerge over the Taiwan Strait and leave PAR late Thursday or Friday, September 1, as a severe tropical storm or a typhoon at its “lowest limit.”
Goring is the Philippines’ seventh tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for August. It is also the third super typhoon for the year, after Betty (Mawar) in May and Egay (Doksuri) in July.
PAGASA previously said it expects two or three tropical cyclones to develop within or enter PAR in August.
That forecast could come true as the low pressure area (LPA) outside PAR developed into a tropical depression on Sunday afternoon.
The tropical depression was located 2,325 kilometers east of Central Luzon as of 4 pm, slowly moving south southeast.
It has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and is likely to intensify in the coming days.
PAGASA said the newly formed tropical cyclone may head north northeast in the next 12 hours before turning northwest, then further west northwest or west on Tuesday as it approaches the eastern boundary of PAR.
It could enter PAR late Wednesday or early Thursday. By then, it may already be a typhoon with a peak intensity of 150 km/h, referring to maximum sustained winds.
It would be given the local name Hanna once inside PAR.
For now, the raising of tropical cyclone wind signals due to the potential Hanna is unlikely, according to PAGASA.
It is also unlikely to enhance the southwest monsoon. But the weather bureau noted that “the magnitude, extent, and timing of monsoon enhancement and resulting rainfall may still change” depending on the incoming tropical cyclone’s intensity and movement. – Rappler.com