Tropical Storm Idalia forms; forecast for Florida landfall this week as hurricane
Tropical Storm Idalia formed Sunday morning and is forecast to make landfall this week along Florida’s Gulf Coast as a hurricane, prompting Gov. Ron DeSantis to declare a state of emergency for 33 counties.
Idalia (pronounced ee-DAHL-ya) is expected to be Hurricane Idalia by Tuesday ahead of a projected Florida landfall, forecasters said.
There will be a “window” while the system is in the Gulf that may be conducive to it strengthening, said Nick Carr, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service Miami, but it remains unclear how strong it could become.
The most current National Hurricane Center forecast discussion predicts top winds could reach 90 mph, making it potentially a Category 1 hurricane at landfall. Major hurricanes are classified as Category 3 and above.
MORE: Will Hurricane Idalia hit Tampa and St. Petersburg? Here’s the latest forecast track
The NHC forecast for the season predicted two to five major hurricanes for the 2023 Atlantic season. Hurricane Franklin, now a Category 2 hurricane, was located less than 565 miles south-southwest of Bermuda as of 11 a.m. Sunday, and forecast to become a major hurricane before Monday. It would be the season’s first major hurricane.
The state of emergency for Tropical Depression 10 does not currently include Broward, Palm Beach or Miami-Dade counties.
But South Florida could start seeing gusty winds, heavy rainfall and hazardous marine conditions beginning Monday and continuing through Thursday, according to the National Weather Service Miami.
The storm could also coincide with South Florida’s king tides next week, adding to already elevated tides and making flooding more likely, Carr said.
As of 11 a.m. Sunday, Idalia was moving east at 2 mph, located about 80 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph, just 1 mph above the minimum threshold for tropical storm formation. Little movement is expected through Sunday, before a slow northward motion begins Monday.
The storm “is forecast to strengthen during the next few days and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,” forecasters wrote, “bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week.”
The forecast path has the storm curling north toward Florida’s Gulf Coast by Tuesday or Wednesday.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel, while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for extreme western Cuba, including the provinces of Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth.
Heavy rains are likely over western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, forecasters said.
The 33 counties included in the state of emergency are Alachua, Bay, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, and Wakulla Counties.
“I’ve directed @KevinGuthrieFL & the FL Emergency Management team to prepare for a potential tropical system currently moving across the Yucatán Peninsula,” Gov. Ron DeSantis posted Thursday night on X, the social media platform previously known as Twitter. “Residents should remain vigilant and prepare for possible impacts early next week.”
On Friday, Florida’s Chief Financial Officer and State Fire Marshal Jimmy Patronis added his voice to the warnings to be prepared if the system intensifies.
“As Floridians are well aware, tropical storms are often unpredictable and can strengthen quickly,” he said in a news release. “I am urging Floridians to prepare now and to heed all watches and warnings from state and local officials. If a tropical storm is formed, it could make landfall Tuesday or Wednesday of next week with the potential to drop heavy amounts of rain which can lead to flooding.”
The reminders to be prepared come just as the state opens its second “sales tax holiday” of the year for hurricane-related supplies. Florida’s “disaster preparedness” tax holiday starts Saturday and continues through Sept. 8.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Franklin, now a Category 2 storm, is forecast to “rapidly intensify into a major hurricane,” meaning Category 3 or above, by Sunday night, according to the latest outlook. The storm is expected to move to the west of Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.
A disturbance located about 1,000 miles from Bermuda was no longer expected to develop, forecasters said early Sunday. They are monitoring a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa and over the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.
While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.
The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14-21 named storms, including 6-11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.
The next storm to form would be Jose.