Tropical Storm Idalia forms, forecast to become hurricane that could threaten Florida

The tropical depression currently near the Yucatan Peninsula strengthened into a tropical storm Sunday and is expected to become a hurricane in the coming days, and forecasts by the National Hurricane Center suggest it may threaten Florida by mid-week.

The storm known as Idalia was about 80 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, as of the 2 p.m. update by the NHC. The system had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving north at 2 mph.

Idalia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday, the NHC forecast said.

“The depression is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge, flooding from heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday,” the NHC forecast said. “Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast, have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by local officials.”

The forecast projected 3 to 6 inches of rain from the storm from Tuesday into Wednesday in portions of the west coast of Florida and the Panhandle. Some areas could see 10 inches of rainfall, the NHC said.

“This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba,” the forecast said. “Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into Thursday.”

John Pendergrast, forecaster with the National Weather Service in Melbourne, told the Orlando Sentinel that Central Florida will start to feel Tropical Storm Idalia’s effects on Tuesday and Wednesday. If the storm develops into a hurricane Pendergrast said the forecast currently projects it making landfall Wednesday morning over the big bend area of Florida.

“For Central Florida that means that we’re going to have a threat of some heavy rain, squale conditions, so when we say that, gusts possibly the tropical storm force of 35 to 45 miles per hour and squales especially on Wednesday,” Pendergrast said.

Pendergrast said Central Florida will have the possibility of tornadoes forming as the system moves across Florida.

“When we’ve had similar systems pass west of the area we had tornadoes at times occur in Central Florida,” Pendergrast said. “So the three main things locally are heavy rain, a gust of squales, as well as the possibility of a tornado or two especially on Wednesday it looks like into Wednesday afternoon.”

The system is forecast to clear north of the Central Florida area during the day and into Wednesday night, Pendergrast said.

Currently the tropical storm is expected to strengthen in to a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph at landfall near north Florida, Pendergrast said.

“The best place for [feeling the wind effects] based on the current track is going to be the I-4 corridor along the west of the I-4 corridor,” Pendergrast said. “Of course that would include metro Orlando, up to Volusia County, Lake County and Osceola those are the counties that are going to be the closest to the system as it stands right now.”

Central Florida residents should start making hurricane preparations and secure loose items outside of their homes and prepare for possible localized flooding, Pendergrast said.

Perdergrast said residents should remain vigilant and understand that the track and intensity of the storm could change at any moment.

“Small deviations on the track could bring higher effects to the area so we’re not, you know, we’re not firmly set on the track for the hurricane yet or the intensity,” Pendergrast said. “So we’re certainly going to be watching those over the next couple of days to see if there’s any adjustments from the track and further advisories that come out from the hurricane center.”

On Saturday, the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel, while Cuba issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, who was campaigning in Iowa on Saturday, declared a state of emergency for 33 Florida counties, noting the Gulf Coast is still recovering after being devastated by Hurricane Ian last year.

“I signed an Executive Order issuing a state of emergency out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a storm next week,” DeSantis said in a statement. “I encourage Floridians to have a plan in place and ensure that their hurricane supply kit is stocked.”

The governor’s executive order covers the following counties: Alachua, Bay, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor and Wakulla.

Attorney General Moody also announced the activation of Florida’s Price Gouging Hotline.

“I have activated our Price Gouging Hotline to take complaints about extreme price increases on commodities needed to prepare for a potential storm strike,” Moody said in a statement Saturday. “Please make preparation now, pay attention to weather updates and report price gouging to my office by calling 1(866) 9NO-SCAM, visiting MyFloridaLegal.com, or downloading our app— No Scam.”