If Trump Sits on His Lead He May Lose Iowa

Former President Trump’s decision to duck the first GOP presidential debate may have been tactically sound, but if he tries to sit on his lead in the polls until January, he may regret it. This is certainly true in Iowa, where voters expect a lot of attention from the candidates, and don’t consider Twitter interviews or intermittent rallies as acceptable substitutes. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has a well-developed retail campaign operation in Iowa that includes personal visits to each of the state’s 99 counties. Moreover, a recent survey conducted by widely respected pollster J. Ann Selzer reveals that the Trump-DeSantis race may well be closer than it seems.

As the Des Moines Register reports, the poll shows Trump 23 points ahead of DeSantis. However, when the total “footprints” of the two are compared, Trump’s advantage is only 63 percent to 61 percent: “The footprint is measured by adding together those who say the candidate is their first choice for president, those who say the candidate is their second choice and those who are actively considering supporting the candidate.” Trump’s lead appears even less durable after factoring in voter ambivalence — 34 percent of his supporters say they could still change their minds. This is particularly significant considering that 36 percent of Trump’s nominal supporters picked the Florida governor as their second choice.

This is where the ground games of these two candidates will begin to tell. While the DeSantis campaign has worked overtime in Iowa, the Trump campaign has paid only sporadic attention to the state. Politico points out that the DeSantis super PAC, Never Back Down, has established county-level chairs throughout the Hawkeye state and that it has secured commitments from over 10,000 Republicans to caucus for DeSantis. Trump, meanwhile, has skipped a variety of events at which Iowans expect serious candidates to appear, including Gov. Kim Reynolds’ Fair-Side Chats with presidential hopefuls at the Iowa State Fair. Then, in July, he took to Truth Social and overtly attacked Reynolds for the mortal sin of neutrality:

I love Iowa, protected & expanded Ethanol, got 28 Billion Dollars from China for our great Farmers, ended the Estate (Death!) Tax on farms, made the best TRADE deals in history (USMCA, China, & many more), introduced the World to our FARMERS, & kept Iowa’s “First in the Nation” status. I opened up the Governor position for Kim Reynolds, & when she fell behind, I ENDORSED her, did big Rallies, & she won. Now, she wants to remain “NEUTRAL.”

This did not go over very well with Iowa voters. As the New York Post reported at the time, “A whopping 78% of likely GOP caucus-goers disagreed with the former president’s jab earlier this month at Gov. Kim Reynolds for not endorsing his candidacy.” She enjoys an approval rating in excess of 80 percent. Trump’s Iowa lead never approached his national polling numbers, and a new survey released Friday shows the Florida governor closing the gap since last Wednesday’s Republican debate. Public Opinion Strategies found, in a post-debate poll first published by Fox News, that DeSantis’ Iowa support rose from 14 percent to 21 percent. Trump’s support declined slightly, reducing his lead from 28 points to 20 points. (READ MORE: The Paths Forward for the GOP Presidential Field)

Another new survey, conducted by Insider Advantage, shows that DeSantis received a post-debate bump. This poll showed his support languishing below 10 percent. The post-debate poll has him at 18 percent. As A.G. Gancarski writes in Florida Politics, “DeSantis gained eight points in less than a week, and much of that came at the expense of the non-debating Donald Trump, who fell from 51% to 45%, meaning DeSantis’ deficit shrank from 41% to 27% in just a matter of days.” That still leaves him a lot of work to do, but there are additional signs of progress. The Washington Post, FiveThirtyEight, and Ipsos conducted a joint poll before and after Wednesday’s debate and declared DeSantis the winner:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came out on top Wednesday night, with 29 percent of Republican voters who watched the debate saying he performed best. He was nearly matched by former pharmaceutical executive Vivek Ramaswamy, with 26 percent saying he performed best. The findings may be surprising because DeSantis generally stayed above the fray in a raucous debate, though Ramaswamy received and delivered lots of barbs.

The survey also found that DeSantis’ increased his share of voters who said they would consider voting for him from 62 percent to 67 percent. Meanwhile, Trump’s support among debate watchers decreased from 66 percent to 61 percent — a decrease that was almost certainly the result of the former President’s refusal to debate. Which brings us back to Trump’s apparent plan to sit on his lead. As the above suggests, it will cost him some votes in the primaries, and DeSantis may well defeat him in Iowa. After all, the last time Trump faced a serious competitor in the Hawkeye State, he lost. Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucus in 2016, which forced Trump to work for the Republican presidential nomination.

READ MORE from David Catron: Will Trump Donors Keep Funding His Legal Battles?)

Without that hard fought primary battle, Trump may not have been strong enough to eke out his general election victory against Hillary Clinton. Now, facing an even more vicious campaign of slander and lawfare, he seems to believe that he is owed the GOP nomination. If DeSantis can beat him in Iowa, however, that may pierce his aura of invincibility and serve as a wake-up call to Republicans who understand how important it is for the GOP to take back the White House in 2024. If President Biden is indeed the 2024 Democratic nominee, DeSantis would probably win with a diverse coalition of Republican, independent and even Democratic voters as he did in Florida. Does anyone really believe Trump can pull that off?

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