2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Drama Series
According to 92% of the 2,000+ Gold Derby users predicting the 2023 Primetime Emmys, “Succession” is going to become the eighth program to win Best Drama Series for its final season, joining fellow HBO hits “Game of Thrones” (2019) and “The Sopranos” (2007). Having already prevailed here in 2020 and 2022, it would be the ninth series to take this prize three times and the first since “Mad Men” (2008-2010) to do so within four seasons.
HBO currently has four shows in the running for Best Drama Series, matching a similar feat achieved 31 years ago by NBC. Aside from “Succession,” its entrants are “House of the Dragon,” “The Last of Us,” and “The White Lotus,” the last of which was honored as the best limited series of 2022. In addition to 2021 winner “The Crown,” the remaining programs in this lineup are returning nominees “Better Call Saul” and “Yellowjackets” and first-timer “Andor.”
In order to determine whether any show has a reasonable shot at defeating “Succession” here, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 25 other Primetime Emmy categories.
“Andor” (Disney+)
The second “Star Wars” series to earn a nomination here (after “The Mandalorian,” 2020-2021) tells the backstory of tragic “Rogue One” hero Cassian Andor (Diego Luna) as he grows from being a small-time thief to a full-fledged member of the Rebel Alliance. Outside of this category, it has shots at winning two of the awards “The Mandalorian” has received: Best Music for a Series and Best Special Visual Effects.
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
Although “Breaking Bad” won this award in both 2013 and 2014, its prequel/sequel series has lost on all six of its previous program bids, not to mention all 40 of its nominations in other categories. It now has seven chances to finally score an Emmy victory for the second chunk of its closing season, during which the titular character’s extensive criminal past (and present) catches up to him and he is forced to stand trial.
“The Crown” (Netflix)
After sweeping the seven major drama categories on its last outing in 2021, “The Crown” only has the potential to leave the upcoming ceremony with wins for Best Drama Series and Supporting Actress (Elizabeth Debicki). Set between 1990 and 1997, the show’s fifth and penultimate season continues to tell the story of Queen Elizabeth II’s 70-year reign over the United Kingdom, with Imelda Staunton inhabiting the lead role formerly played by Claire Foy and Olivia Colman.
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)
Like “Better Call Saul,” this new series derives from one that already conquered this category: quadruple victor “Game of Thrones” (2015-2016, 2018-2019). Set close to two centuries prior to the events of its parent series, it traces the downfall of Westeros’ House Targaryen, the most prominent members of which include King Viserys I (Paddy Considine) and his daughter, Rhaenyra (Emma D’Arcy).
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Based on the 2013 video game of the same name, “The Last of Us” explores the effects of a decades-long fungal pandemic by primarily focusing on an unlikely pair of survivors who reluctantly become traveling companions. Among its two dozen other nominations are ones for its directing and writing, plus two for lead performers Pedro Pascal and Bella Ramsey.
“Succession” (HBO)
With 27 total nominations (compared to 25 in 2022), “Succession” stands as the most-recognized program for the second year in a row. If awarded for its final season, which addresses the fate of media conglomerate Waystar following its founder’s death, it will join a group of triple Best Drama Series winners that, in addition to “Mad Men,” consists of “Playhouse 90,” “The Defenders,” “Upstairs, Downstairs,” “Hill Street Blues,” “L.A. Law,” “The West Wing,” and “Game of Thrones.”
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
Following the example of early 2010s series “Downton Abbey,” “The White Lotus” has now earned TV academy recognition as both a limited and continuing program. This situation differs, however, in that the HBO series could eventually revert to its original classification if it ever produces another batch of episodes featuring an entirely new slate of characters. In its presently nominated season, Emmy-winning character Tanya McQuoid (Jennifer Coolidge) and various other wealthy individuals embark on a fateful, week-long vacation in Sicily.
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
For the second year in a row, this thriller series is up for the top drama honor as well as the corresponding lead actress (Melanie Lynskey) and casting awards. Continuing to jump back and forth in time over several decades, the show’s sophomore season delves deeper into the lives and experiences of a group of middle-aged American women who, as teenagers, spent 19 months stranded in the Canadian wilderness.
So, what will win the 2023 Emmy for Best Drama Series? Unlike the corresponding comedy race, which will come down to the wire for reigning champ “Ted Lasso” and its remarkably strong freshman challenger, “The Bear,” this contest is practically sure to end with “Succession” holding onto its title. When it comes to possibly toppling the familial drama, the only shows with any glimmers of hope – as reflected by our odds as well as their general popularity – are “The Last of Us” and “The White Lotus,” both of which should still be able to pull off several wins outside of this category.
The vast majority of our participating users expect “Succession” to follow “Hill Street Blues” (1981) as the second drama series to win six of the possible seven major Emmys in a single year, with the only category apparently preventing its sweep being the supporting actress one, where Coolidge remains the obvious frontrunner. Since the show is vulnerable in a few additional places, there isn’t much chance of it completely dominating the upcoming ceremony like “The Crown” did in 2021, but it’s bound to at least be the year’s most-decorated drama.
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