Billy Walters' new book is necessary reading for NFL bettors before the new season
Welcome to the Winner’s Circle, a weekly column by Bet For The Win senior writer Prince J. Grimes.
I’ll be honest, man. I’m not all that familiar with Billy Walters.
If his name ever came up before the excerpts from his new book started dropping a couple weeks ago, I can’t say I remember it. As someone still relatively new in sports betting, the corner of the world he dominated apparently wasn’t relevant enough to the world I occupied for me to take notice.
Now it is. So, for me, his revelations about Phil Mickelson’s alleged gambling behavior and everything else to come from the press run for his book, Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk, has been an introduction to Walters himself as much as it’s been a reveal of what’s in the book. And I must say, I’ve come away impressed with his unquestioned label as the “greatest sports gambler ever” and all the things I’ve heard from him in the lead up to the book’s release last Tuesday.
Now, to be clear, while I do have a copy of the book and plan to read it, I have not read it yet — and this isn’t meant to be a sales pitch for the book. But Walters has stated his intention of passing along wisdom to future generations of bettors. As someone who writes about this stuff and even gives the occasional pick myself, I feel it’s my responsibility to point people in the direction of someone who’s actually good at it. And based on this excerpt shared by ESPN’s David Purdum, I can tell the book has some real gems for casual bettors. In particular, Walters had good advice for football bettors, and it came just in time for the NFL and college footballs seasons.
A few tips that stood out to me:
“Set up accounts at multiple places so you can bet quickly when you see value. Betting lines are not the same everywhere – look for the line that compares most favorably to your predicted game score.”
“A rule of thumb: Bet favorites early and underdogs late. More money tends to go to favorites as the game nears, raising the spreads for underdogs.”
“Betting totals (over/under total points scored in a game) can be smart if you see value. You may think the bookmakers have erred in estimating weather conditions, injuries or other factors. But only bet the over or under if you have a logical reason for doing so.”
“Understand that parlays are like a lottery bet – sports books love them because they are much harder to win. While they may be fun, they are not a good value bet.”
“Prop bets can be fun, but only bet them if there’s a legitimate reason to do it. Otherwise, you’re just flipping a coin.”
He also outlined some game factors to be aware of, like field surface, days of rest, teams changing time zones and more. Some of his tips are things causal bettors may have never considered, but much of it also reinforces things they should innately know, but maybe didn’t realize how much they factor (like home-field advantage).
Walters made clear you could take all of his advice and still lose. But I think if your goal is to make money from sports betting, you’ll be better off for hearing his tips than not. Just my two cents.