Changing face of socio-economic vulnerability and COVID-19: An analysis of country wealth during the first two years of the pandemic

by Víctor Pérez-Segura, Raquel Caro-Carretero, Antonio Rua

There are numerous academic studies on the relationship between population wealth and the incidence of COVID-19. However, research developed shows contradictory results on their relationship. In accordance with this question, this work pursues two objectives: on the one hand, to check whether wealth and disease incidence have a unidirectional and stable relationship. And on the other hand, to find out if the country’s statistical production capacity is masking the real incidence of the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to achieve this objective, an ecological study has been designed at international level with the countries established as study units. The analytical strategy utilized involves the consecutive application of cross-sectional analysis, specifically employing multivariate linear regression daily throughout the first two years of the pandemic (from 03/14/2020 to 03/28/2022). The application of multiple cross-sectional analysis has shown that country wealth has a dynamic relationship with the incidence of COVID-19. Initially, it appears as a risk factor and, in the long term, as a protective element. In turn, statistical capacity appears as an explanatory variable for the number of published COVID-19 cases and deaths. Therefore, the inadequate statistical production capacity of low income countries may be masking the real incidence of the disease.