2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Drama Actress

Once she scored her 2023 lead acting Emmy nomination for “Succession,” former supporting contender Sarah Snook secured her shot at becoming the first dramatic performer and second woman (after “Friends” star Jennifer Aniston) to experience her first Emmy triumph after such a role reclassification. Barring a truly surprising win by one of her five current competitors, there is practically nothing standing in the way of her bringing her recently concluded series its first female acting Emmy.

This year’s Best Drama Actress lineup includes a relatively even mix of Emmy newcomers and returning contenders, with the only past winner in the bunch being 2017 champ Elisabeth Moss (“The Handmaid’s Tale”). Melanie Lynskey is on her second consecutive bid for “Yellowjackets,” while former “The Americans” nominee Keri Russell makes her fourth appearance in the category as the star of the new series “The Diplomat.” Those who had never earned TV academy recognition at all until now are Sharon Horgan (“Bad Sisters”) and Bella Ramsey (“The Last of Us”).

In order to assess just how safe it is to predict a Snook victory, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 25 other Primetime Emmy categories.

Sharon Horgan as Eva Garvey (“Bad Sisters”)
Episode: “Saving Grace”

Horgan, who is concurrently nominated for co-writing this series’ premiere episode, has one previous Best Comedy Writing bid to her name for “Catastrophe,” on which she also played a lead role. In the first season finale of “Bad Sisters,” her character, who is the eldest of five Irish sisters, finally learns the truth of how her abusive brother-in-law met his mysterious demise.

Melanie Lynskey as Shauna Sadecki (“Yellowjackets”)
Episode: “Burial”

Lynskey’s second nomination in this category is coupled with her first Best Drama Guest Actress one for “The Last of Us.” This late season “Yellowjackets” installment finds dejected housewife Shauna opening herself up to unconventional therapy tactics while on a retreat with her former high school soccer teammates, to whom she is irrevocably tied because of their shared trauma of having been trapped in the wilderness for nearly two years. By the end of the episode, she learns that the body of a man she killed in the first season has been found.

Elisabeth Moss as June Osborne (“The Handmaid’s Tale”)
Episode: “Safe”

This notice is Moss’s fourth for this role, with her 2017 win having been followed by bids in 2018 and 2021. Between 2009 and 2015, she collected one supporting and five lead nominations for the drama series “Mad Men.” This marks the first time she has been recognized for a “Handmaid’s Tale” season finale, which involves forced birth slavery survivor June scrambling to find yet another new place to live after making it through an assassination attempt.

Bella Ramsey as Ellie (“The Last of Us”)
Episode: “When We Are in Need”

At 19, Ramsey follows Melissa Sue Anderson (15, “Little House on the Prairie,” 1978), Claire Danes (16, “My So-Called Life,” 1995), and Kristy McNichol (17, “Family,” 1980) as the fourth youngest nominee in this category’s history. In the penultimate episode of the first “Last of Us” season, Ellie, an apparently immune pandemic survivor, encounters a cannibalistic cult while hunting to sustain herself and her wounded traveling companion, Joel (Pedro Pascal). While they initially appear somewhat helpful, the group eventually capture Ellie and force her to fight for her life.

Keri Russell as Kate Wyler (“The Diplomat”)
Episode: “Lambs in the Dark”

Russell’s newest Emmy nomination comes five years after she was nominated for the final season of “The Americans.” On this new series, she plays a U.S. ambassador to the U.K. who struggles with her new responsibilities partly because they lead to friction between her and her husband, Hal (Rufus Sewell). That becomes especially clear in the third episode, in which Kate realizes Hal has been selfishly manipulating her into possibly accepting the less demanding position of vice president.

Sarah Snook as Shiv Roy (“Succession”)
Episode: “Tailgate Party”

Snook’s third nomination for this series and first in this category comes for this midseason episode in which her character and her estranged husband, Tom (Matthew Macfadyen), host a pre-election night party at their apartment. As the event progresses, Shiv is given reason to question the legitimacy of her covert alliance with tech magnate Lukas Matsson (Alexander Skarsgård) and ends up engaging in a brutal yet ultimately therapeutic argument with Tom.

So, who will win the 2023 Emmy for Best Drama Actress? If the passion behind Snook and her show weren’t enough to help her clinch the gold, her category has already seen more fourth season winners (12) than any other regular acting one, regardless of genre. While it’s also true that a final season performance hasn’t been honored here since 1996 (Kathy Baker, “Picket Fences”) and the other categories have each seen three or more since then, Snook is more than capable of closing that gap.

The nominee with the best shot at beating Snook is Ramsey, who is still far less likely to be awarded than Pascal, who stands a good chance of reaping the benefits of possible “Succession” vote splitting in the Best Drama Actor category. With no cast mates currently diverting attention from her (as was the case when she faced J. Smith-Cameron in the 2022 supporting contest), this should be an absolute slam dunk for Snook.

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