September 2023 box office preview: Sequels and horror movies dominate the normally slower month

September means different things for different people. It’s the fall, so for some, it means going back to school. But for movie buffs, it’s also the start of the film festivals that often introduce some of the bigger contenders of the season. And yet, it’s never the greatest month for movie releases, although there has been more than a few surprises over the years.

Before we officially get to the fall, we have to wrap up the summer. Read on for our September 2023 box office preview.

“The Equalizer 3” (Sony – Sept. 1)

Denzel Washington returns to the character of Robert McCall, the ex-Special Ops agent who has made his mission to protect and avenge those who are preyed on by criminals, this time taking on the mob in Italy. Reteaming Washington with director Antoine Fuqua (“Training Day,” “The Equalizer”), it also marks Washington’s return to theaters for the first time since 2021’s “The Little Things,” which got hobbled by the pandemic but still did better than 2017’s “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” You can read more about Denzel’s return to the character and its box office prospects in the weekend preview on Wednesday.

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“The Nun II” (Warner Bros – Sept. 8)

One movie that’s very likely to give Denzel a run for the top movie of the month is this R-rated horror sequel to “The Conjuring” spin-off that opened with $53.8 million on this very same weekend in 2018, doing far better than both previous “The Conjuring” movies directed by James Wan. Storm Reid joins Taissa Farmiga for this film set in 1956 France where a priest is murdered and Farmiga’s Sister Irene once again takes on Valak, the demon nun. Although this is getting a very early start on the annual Halloween tradition, the lack of strong horror has allowed A24 to have a hit with “Talk to Me” over the summer, and “The Nun II” should give an early head start on the month’s horror offerings with $40 million or more.

“Saw X” (Lionsgate – Sept. 29) 

Another venerable horror franchise that began with a movie directed by James Wan has hit a few stumbling blocks over the years, as they’ve tried to reboot and reinvent it. Between 2005 and 2008, the franchise delivered four $30 million openers, but “Saw II” still remains the highest-grossing of the franchise with $87 million. After a fumbled attempt by Chris Rock to reinvent the franchise with 2021’s “Spiral,” co-starring Samuel L. Jackson – which, let’s be fair, opened just as movie theaters were being reopened in New York and Los Angeles after the pandemic shutdown – director Kevin Greutert returns behind the camera for Lionsgate. Greutert previously helmed 2009’s “Saw VI” and its follow-up “Saw 3D” in 2010, and he also edited the previous five “Saw” movies. It should be able to open with $25 and 30 million if the fans are feeling nostalgic, despite it being 15 years since a “Saw” movie grossed more than $50 million.

“Expend4bles” (Lionsgate – Sept. 22)

Continuing the month’s string of sequels is this ensemble action thriller, once again starring Jason Statham, joined by Sylvester Stallone, Dolph Lundgren, 50 Cent, Megan Fox, Tony Jaa, Iko Uwais and Randy Couture. A September action movie is a bit of a rarity, but with no release date for the second part of “Fast X,” this might be seen as a good stop-gap. Granted, it’s been almost 10 years since “The Expendables 3,” and that only made $39 million domestically, about a third of the $100 million made by the first movie in 2010. All three previous movies did great overseas, which is probably why Lionsgate decided to give this another go, but this is coming out the week before “Saw X” as another valiant attempt by the studio to revive one of its franchises. This might actually work but may only open in the low $20 millions with little in the chance of legs considering what comes out on the 29th.

“A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century – Sept. 15)

Another actor returning for his third time to a character is Kenneth Branagh, who directs and stars in his latest Agatha Christie adaptation, once again playing Inspector Hercule Poirot. This is another star-studded affair with Tina Fey playing mystery writer, Ariadne Oliver, as well as recent Oscar winner Michelle Yeoh, Jamie Dornan, Kelly Reilly and even Jude Hill from Branagh’s “Belfast.” This movie adds more of a horror element, which should help this open with more than the $12 million of 2022’s “Death on the Nile,” which began during the Omicron spike and did better overseas. “Venice” should open with between $18 and 20 million, undaunted by coming out on the second weekend of “The Nun II.”

“The Creator” (20th Century – Sept. 29)

One thing that might hinder “Saw X” is the new sci-fi epic from Gareth Edwards (“Rogue One,” “Godzilla”) starring John David Washington and set in a post-apocalyptic future following a war between humans and AI. Washington previously starred in Christopher Nolan‘s “Tenet,” a movie that was hindered due to the pandemic, but he probably has enough fans that his presence combined with the premise could help the movie open possibly in the mid-teens or higher. The question is whether moviegoers might be ready for something new after a month of sequels, or else, they’ll just go see “Saw X,” which for all intents and purposes can be seen as a sure thing.

“PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie” (Paramount – Sept. 29)

This animated family film is based on one of the most successful recent animated series for smaller children, and it should benefit from being the highest-profile family film released this month, as well as from its superstar voice cast, including Taraji P. Henson, Lil Rel Howery, Chris Rock, Kim Kardashian and more. Not being a parent myself, I do not have a ton of insight about the popularity of the series and whether it might attract any teens who grew up with the show. More likely, it will be parents with small kids, allowing it to do as well or better than the 2021 “Paw Patrol Movie,” which opened with $13.1 million and grossed $40 million domestic at the height of the pandemic. (That said, there’s a long-standing tradition of sequels to family films not finding as much success as their predecessors.)

“My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus – Sept. 8)

Nia Vardalos returns to the role that put her on the map. Yes, this is the third movie this month with an actor reprising a role for the third time. In this case, the Vardalos-directed threequel has her character Toula going to Greece, with popular characters played by Andrea Martin and John Corbett returning. Focus has not had much luck with other sequels it picked up, like last year’s “Downton Abbey: A New Era” making less than half its 2019 predecessor, and this year’s “Book Club: The Next Chapter” making about a quarter as much as the previous Paramount movie. It’s been over 20 years since the original “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” became a global sensation with $241 million made in North America alone, but it’s been seven years since the sequel only made $60 million. Do audiences really care about this character’s story? I have trouble seeing this opening with more than $10 million, especially with Vardalos not doing promotion due to the strike.

“Jawan” (Yash Raj Films – Sept. 7)

The Telugu action epic “RRR” proved there to be a growin interest in films from India, and this action movie directed by Atlee stars Bollywood superstar Shah Rukh Khan of “Pathaan,” which opened with $7 million in 695 theaters earlier this year and made $17.5 million domestically. He also starred in last year’s “Brahmastra” which barely made more than “Pathaan” domestically. Either way, this movie will be taking on “The Nun II” and possibly bringing in a good amount of business from the diehard Bollywood action fans.

“Dumb Money” (Sony – Sept. 15 in NY, LA)

This new movie from Craig Gillespie (“I, Tanya,” “Cruella”) was originally going to get a wide release this month, following its world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival, but Sony will now be platforming and expanding it over the course of the weeks until its wide release in October. Based on Ben Mezrich‘s book, “The Antisocial Network” – and yes, Mezrich also wrote the book that was adapted into the Oscar-winning “The Social Network” – it stars Paul Dano as Reddit financial analyst Kevin Gill who created a feeding frenzy behind the video game store GameStop that helped turn him into a millionaire, while crashing the holdings of many hedge fund managers. We’ll have to see if Sony is able to turn this into another $100 million hit ala “The Social Network” by building word-of-mouth with such a slow rollout.

“Dicks: The Musical” (A24 – Sept. 29)

Larry Charles (“Borat”) directs this R-rated musical take on “The Parent Trap,” starring Aaron Jackson, Josh Sharp, Nathan Lane, Megan Mullally, Bowen Yang and Megan Thee Stallion. It’s not been determined how wide A24 might release this opening weekend, or if they might just give it a limited release and then expand nationwide in October, ala Sony with “Dumb Money.”

“The Inventor” (Blue Fox Entertainment – Sept. 15)

This animated movie is essentially a musical biopic about Leonardo da Vinci, written and directed by Jim Capobianco with Pierre-Luc Granjon, featuring the voices of Daisy Ridley, Matt Berry, Marion Cotillard and Stephen Fry. It was originally going to get a wide release in August but then got bumped to mid-September.

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And then we get to a few bonafide limited releases coming out this month …

“Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia” (GKIDS – Sept. 1)

This is the sequel to Julien Chheng and Jean-Christophe Roger Oscar-nominated French animated film from 2014.

“Perpetrator” (Shudder – Sept. 1)

The new horror film from Jennifer Reeder recently premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival with Kiah McKirnan playing a teenager who turns into a feral creature due to a family spell called “Forevering.”

“The Good Mother” (Vertical – Sept. 1)

Hilary Swank, Olivia Cooke and Jack Reynor star in this drama written and directed by Miles Joris-Peyrafitte, in which Swank plays journalist Marissa Bennings, whose estranged son has been murdered, so she teams with his pregnant girlfriend to find his killer.

“Aristotle and Dante Discover the Secrets of the Universe” (Blue Fox Films – Sept. 8)

Eugenio Derbez from the Oscar-winning “CODA,” Eva Longoria, Max Pelayo and Reese Gonzalez star in Aitch Alberto‘s directorial debut, an adaptation of Benjamin Alire Sáenz‘s novel about two Mexican-Ameriacn boys coming of age during the summer of 1987.

“After Everything” (Fathom Events – Sept. 13)

Hero Fiennes-Tiffin and Josephine Langford reunite for the fifth and final chapter in the romance franchise, which began back in 2019.

“Flora and Son” (Apple – Sept. 22)

“Once” and “Sing Street” filmmaker John Carney returns with another musical drama, this one which found many fans at Sundance and will premiere at the Toronto Film Festival earlier in the month. It stars Eve Hewson as a single mother who finds an old guitar she hopes will keep her teen son out of trouble with Joseph Gordon-Levitt playing an online guitar teacher.

“Stop Making Sense” (A24 – Sept. 22)

The late Jonathan Demme‘s concert film, following David Byrne and Talking Heads on their final tour, is returning to theaters with a 40th anniversary IMAX release on the Sept. 22nd, and then a wider rollout in other theaters on Sept. 29. The band is reuniting to do a special live-streamed QnA moderated by Spike Lee on Sept. 11 as well.

“She Came to Me” (Vertical – Sept. 29)

Filmmaker Rebecca Miller returns with this multi-generational dramedy, starring Oscar winners, Anne Hathaway and Marisa Tomei, as well as Peter Dinklage.

“Deliver Us” (Magnolia – Sept. 29)

The month starts with a horror movie involving a nun, and it ends with one as well with Lee Roy Kunz and Cru Ennis‘s thriller about a nun in a remote convent who claims immaculate conception, so the Vatican sends a team to make sure she isn’t giving birth to the Anti-Christ.

That’s it for this month’s preview, but don’t forget to check back every Wednesday for updates on the movies being released over the weekend.

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