Job openings fell in July in a promising sign for soft landing

It’s a big week for jobs data and, by extension, those trying to predict the future of interest rates. Last week at the annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed his institution’s commitment to bringing inflation lower and its willingness to continue raising rates to get there “if appropriate.”

And on Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics added some new federal data to that calculus: Job openings fell in July to about 8.8 million from about 9.2 million in June. It’s the lowest level since March 2021 and a sign that the hot labor market that helped drive inflation is probably cooling down as intended.

“I think this is very much consistent with the soft landing that everyone is sort of hoping and praying for,” said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

The Fed might see indications in the job openings data that supply and demand in the job market are balancing out, he noted.

“We now see the number of job openings relative to the number of unemployed at about 1.5,” said Hamrick. “That certainly is getting into better alignment.”

When there are way more jobs than people to fill them, employers have to pay more to attract workers, said Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at job site Glassdoor. “Ultimately, what the Fed cares about is wages,” he said.

There are still one-and-a-half times more jobs than unemployed people, so “it’s still not a cool labor market, right?” said Layla O’Kane, a senior economist at Lightcast. But it is showing multiple signs of cooling, she said.

Not only did job openings decrease in July, but they were also revised down for June. The number of workers quitting also dropped, falling back in line with pre-pandemic levels after soaring during the “great resignation.”

“It’s showing there’s a little bit more stability,” O’Kane said. “Employers can plan ahead a little bit better, and they’re no longer having to push those wages even higher.”

But Aaron Sojourner, senior economist with the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, said that it doesn’t look like winter is coming too quickly, like in the Alps this week, where record heat was followed by snowstorms.

“That’s not what we want,” he said. “We don’t want wild swings. We don’t want unpredictable tumult.”

Layoffs held steady in July, suggesting a cooldown that’s maybe more like winter in coastal California rather than a deep freeze.