Republicans face a Catch-22 on a national abortion ban

Some of the candidates did fine in last week's Republican debate. Some were less than stellar. The moderators were terrible, even if no one wants to tell them, because they desperately want to get on their television shows. Sadly, there were more questions about UFOs (one) than there were about the fight about the taxpayer-funded brainwashing of schoolchildren with transgender ideology (zero).

And of course, it wouldn't be a Republican debate without at least some discussion about abortion.

Candidates in both parties have to pay lip service to the issue, if only to placate their respective bases. But the truth of the matter is that neither side is going to be able to do anything about the issue at a national level. And unfortunately, the Republicans' current messaging on this topic is working in Democrats' favor.

Republicans have to talk about this issue at least a little bit. But anything they promise to do in Congress undercuts the arguments conservatives had been making throughout the life of Roe v. Wade — that it was horribly decided and had to be overturned, and that the issue should ultimately be returned to the states.

That happened with the Dobbs decision. Once that was handed down, the pro-life fight moved to the states and began in earnest.

Then South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham decided to insert himself into every race in the country in 2022 by introducing a nationwide 15-week abortion ban. I’m not telling you abortion is good (it isn't) or that a ban on second- and third-trimester abortions is bad. I’m telling you that it’s simply not the business of the federal government how states handle this issue — the same case conservatives made throughout the Roe era.

Graham’s move brought back abortion as a motivating force for Democrats, just before people started to vote in a national election, He arguably made the midterm election — an election in which his own name was not even on a ballot — about his bill. Republicans lost.

There were pro-life victories in the states, and some losses, but Graham made it all about him. His bill didn’t get a vote, and it wouldn’t have gotten one even if Republicans had controlled the Senate at the time. There simply weren’t enough legislative days between its introduction and Election Day.

That means the bill could have waited. It could have been introduced after the election. But Graham wanted to be a factor in the midterms, and he was — a negative one.

For the most part, the protection of human life in utero has been winning in the states. The federalism model is working — albeit perhaps not fast enough for some. But in a republic, nothing is quick or easy, and on this issue especially there is a lot of persuasion left to be done.

When this question was brought up in last week's debate, only one candidate bothered to be honest about it, and that was former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. She reminded everyone that there simply aren’t enough votes in Congress to get anything done. Republicans will not have the requisite 60 votes in the Senate after the 2024 election, and even if they get them, at least two Republican senators can be counted on to vote against such a bill anyway. So any talk of a national abortion law is merely academic. That is the truth.

So why not just say it? After all, Democrats are in the same boat. They have sworn to pass a federal statute codifying a right to abortion right up until the moment of birth, but they don’t have the votes for that, either.

At the moment, the only thing anyone is accomplishing with talk of a national abortion ban is motivating progressives to vote and opening their wallets for campaign donations.

Republicans believe they have to appeal to their base voters, who feel passionately about limiting or abolishing abortion. But why try to do this with a false promise, and worse, a promise that takes the focus of soft-Democrat-leaning voters away from issues like the economy and inflation, which might otherwise cause them to think twice about their voting habits?

As matters stand now, the question of a national abortion ban is a Catch-22. It inflames emotions among Democrats who otherwise feel much less strongly about the issue than their party's extreme position would indicate. If Republicans don’t come to terms with this reality, there is little reason to think 2024 will turn out differently than 2022.

Derek Hunter is host of the Derek Hunter Podcast and a former staffer for the late Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.).