The term “breakout” has different meanings for different people in the world of fantasy football. Some folks believe it’s simply a player who will outperform his draft position. Others think it’s an established player who emerges into a regular fantasy starter after never having reached that sort of status in the past.
In my opinion, both definitions are true but with a caveat. I don’t see a player as a breakout candidate if he’s already reached his “statistical ceiling” during his career. For example, Justin Herbert or Najee Harris aren’t “breakout players” to me. Are both coming off down seasons? Yes. But they’ve already reached an elite level and are looking to rebound. I’d call them “comeback players” in drafts.
To help you in your quest to build a dominant squad, here’s a fantasy team (starters and reserves) that’s composed only of my favorite breakout candidates. To me, all of these players could be top-12 at their respective positions this season.
QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
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Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns last season, which was good enough for him to finish as the QB7. Still, I don’t think that’s his ceiling. In fact, I can see Lawrence pushing for 4,500-plus passing yards and 30-plus touchdowns this season with Calvin Ridley now on the roster. Those types of numbers could push the talented signal-caller closer to that of an elite fantasy level.
RB: Bijan Robinson, Falcons
Robinson will be the first player mentioned among runners in the breakout category for 2023. In fact, it would be a shock if he didn’t break out on the same level as Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley before him. Robinson is a three-down back who can run, catch and pass protect, and he’s in an offense that loves to run the football. He’ll be a first-round, top-10 selection in most fantasy redrafts.
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
Expectations will be high for Gibbs, who surprisingly went No. 12 overall in the 2023 NFL draft. He should see a significant role in Detroit after the trade of D’Andre Swift, especially as a pass catcher. That could make Gibbs a PPR dream, but he might not have an “elite” season with David Montgomery around. Still, unless you believe in curses, Gibbs is in a good spot to produce as a No. 2 fantasy back.
WR: Garrett Wilson, Jets
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Wilson was the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022, posting 1,103 yards and 215.7 fantasy points. That was with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White throwing him the football. Just imagine what he’ll do with future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. While the Jets did add Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb, I still like Wilson to move into No. 1 fantasy wideout territory.
WR: Chris Olave, Saints
Olave had a solid rookie season, finishing as the WR25 on the strength of his 72 catches, 1,042 yards and 198.2 fantasy points. Much like Wilson, I think he can be better in 2023. The return of Michael Thomas could be a hindrance, but he’s been out of action for all but 10 games in the last three years. Don’t be surprised if Olave is Derek Carr’s top option and a high-end No. 2 fantasy wideout.
FLEX: Drake London, Falcons
London had a hot start to his rookie year, averaging more than 17.1 points a game. Things fell apart after that before averaging 14 points over his final five contests of 2023. The Falcons quarterback situation is a question mark, of course, as Desmond Ridder is slated to be their starter. Regardless, London figures to lead this team in targets among wide receivers in what should be an improved offense.
TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans
Okonkwo had a mini breakout in the second half of his rookie season, posting 10 or more points in four of his last six games. That includes a six-catch, one-touchdown, 18.5-point effort against the Jaguars in Week 14. With few weapons in the Titans’ pass attack, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Okonkwo rank among the three most targeted players on the team. He’s a solid late-round pick.
K: Brandon McManus, Jaguars
Some folks might consider the idea of a “breakout kicker” to be a bit ridiculous, but tell that to anyone who’s drafted one. McManus could have a monster year.
Bench
QB: Anthony Richardson, Colts RBs: Alexander Mattison, Vikings; Dameon Pierce, Texans WRs: Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers; Christian Watson, Packers; Courtland Sutton, Broncos TE: Greg Dulcich, Broncos
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