2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Drama Directing

Over the course of its first three seasons, “Succession” never failed to win a writing Emmy but was only honored for its directing once, on its second try in 2020. Having recently signed off at the end of its fourth season, the HBO series is widely expected to prevail in both categories this year, but the fact that it takes up three slots in the directing lineup could mean it’s headed for a second consecutive triple loss. In its attempt to follow “The Crown” (2021) as the second drama series to simultaneously sweep every possible major category, this is one area where it is particularly vulnerable.

Of the four shows with one entry apiece in the 2023 drama directing race, two – “The Last of Us” and “The White Lotus” – are also HBO originals, with the latter having taken last year’s Best TV Movie/Limited Series Directing prize. The last two spots belong to freshman series “Andor” (Disney+) and “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+).

In order to determine the true likelihood of “Succession” achieving its second victory here, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 25 other Primetime Emmy categories.

“Andor” — Benjamin Caron
Episode: “Rix Road”

Caron, who shared in a 2021 Best Drama Series win as a producer of “The Crown,” received directing nominations for that show in 2020 and 2021. He helmed three of this “Star Wars” series’ first dozen episodes, including its inaugural season finale, which involves “Rogue One” character Cassian Andor (Diego Luna) narrowly escaping capture and death before falling back in with his villainous mentor, Luthen Rael (Stellan Skarsgård).

“Bad Sisters” — Dearbhla Walsh
Episode: “The Prick”

More than a decade after triumphing on her sole previous directing bid for the 2009 limited series “Little Dorrit,” Walsh has now earned recognition for her work on this new show’s premiere episode. Using the 2012 Flemish series “Clan” as its basis, the pilot introduces the five Garvey sisters of Dublin, who become entangled in a shady insurance investigation triggered by the death of one of their husbands.

“The Last of Us” — Peter Hoar
Episode: “Long, Long Time”

First-time Emmy contender Hoar is the only 2023 drama directing nominee who contributed to just one of his series’ episodes during this eligibility period. The experience he has gained from working on dozens of TV projects over the past two decades served him well here, as audiences and critics responded quite positively to this “Last of Us” installment in which the 16-year love story of two male apocalypse survivors temporarily pulls focus from the series’ lead characters.

“Succession” — Mark Mylod
Episode: “Connor’s Wedding”

In addition to previously being nominated for directing this series’ second and third season finales, Mylod has shared in all four of its Best Drama Series bids, two of which led to wins in 2020 and 2022. In the third episode of the show’s final season, which also serves as its writing award submission, the central Roy family are suddenly forced to grapple with the loss of their patriarch, Logan (Brian Cox), whose death leaves the coveted position of Waystar CEO vacant.

“Succession” — Lorene Scafaria
Episode: “Living+”

Scafaria’s second consecutive “Succession” directing nomination comes for her third and final episode, following the respective third and fourth season installments “Too Much Birthday” and “Honeymoon States.” In this year’s sixth chapter, Shiv Roy (Sarah Snook) processes the discovery that her older brothers, Kendall (Jeremy Strong) and Roman (Kieran Culkin), are pushing their company’s launch of a luxury retirement community in order to ruin an acquisition deal with tech entrepreneur Lukas Matsson (Alexander Skarsgård).

“Succession” — Andrij Parekh
Episode: “America Decides”

Parekh, who was responsible for the first “Succession” directing win in 2020, defeated both Mylod and Caron in that instance. In his sixth and final episode of the series, the Roy siblings metaphorically come to blows as a contentious U.S. presidential election involving a darkly fascist candidate plays out. As family drama influences their decisions on the fateful night, the extent of the wealthy family’s power becomes clear.

“The White Lotus” — Mike White
Episode: “Arrivederci”

After surprising most pundits by dominating last year’s limited series categories, White is once again nominated for producing, writing, and directing “The White Lotus,” which was forced to compete as a continuing drama this time due to its second season’s incorporation of two preexisting characters. As the latest batch of episodes wrap up, various rich vacationers reach the final day of their week-long Sicilian getaway, which ends in happiness for some and tragedy for others.

So, what will win the 2023 Emmy for Best Drama Directing? Analyzing every past instance of a series receiving exactly three same-year nominations in this category indicates a success rate of just 25%, with “Hill Street Blues” (1981 and 1984) being the only show that has ever overcome that apparent hurdle. In all but one case (“Lou Grant” vs. “The White Shadow,” 1979), the triple loser was bested by a program that concurrently won at least one acting Emmy, as most of this year’s non-“Succession” nominees are able to do. However, in a bit of good news for the concluded HBO show, two-thirds of the programs that failed on their triple directing bids still managed to win Best Drama Series and Writing.

Since every case of a drama series winning two directing Emmys within the last quarter century involved two different directors, the best chance of a 2023 “Succession” win indeed lies with Mylod (or possibly Scafaria) rather than Parekh. Given the incredibly positive critical response to “Connor’s Wedding,” it’s pretty safe to bet on it rising above its roadblocks and being lauded for both its directing and writing. Still, it would be wise to not completely count out “The Last of Us” or “The White Lotus.”

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