Box office preview: Denzel Washington returns with ‘The Equalizer 3’ for easy Labor Day victory

Labor Day weekend marks the end of the summer, but it’s also a holiday weekend where many moviegoers try to catch up on what they missed. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

This would be a good catch-up weekend if not for the fact that last weekend was National Cinema Day with $4 movie tickets on Sunday, and presumably, many moviegoers used that fact to catch up on summer movies. This weekend is generally counted as four days since Monday is a national holiday, and any schools that have already reopened will be closed again. (However, Gold Derby’s box office contest still counts the weekend as Friday-Saturday-Sunday.)

With that in mind, this Labor Day sees the first nationwide theatrical release for a Denzel Washington movie since “The Equalizer 2” in the summer of 2018. Although he did star in the serial killer thriller “The Little Things” opposite fellow Oscar winner Jared Leto in 2021, it got a nominal theatrical release in the height of the pandemic, streaming on HBO Max day-and-date. Washington then teamed up with filmmaker Joel Coen and Frances McDormand, playing the title character in a new film adaptation of Shakespeare’s “The Tragedy of Macbeth.” As with many Apple movies, it didn’t report box office.

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That brings us to “The Equalizer 3,” the third movie in the franchise based on a popular TV series from the ’80s, which oddly has also returned to CBS with Queen Latifah in the title role. It’s been five years since the last movie installment, but that was also the last Denzel movie that got his fans into theaters, and there’s little reason for them not to be back, especially since “The Equalizer 3” is so different from everything else in theaters. In this case, his character Robert McCall, a former special ops with a thirst to protect others, travels to Southern Italy where he goes after the mob, so it’s like “The Equalizer” meets “The Godfather.”

The two previous “Equalizer” movies – both directed by frequent Washington collaborator Antoine Fuqua – grossed $100 million domestically, as well as about $90 million overseas. This installment also reunites Washington with Dakota Fanning, who starred with the Oscar winner in the late Tony Scott‘s 2004 film “Man on Fire” when Fanning was just nine years old. Fuqua has stated that he sees “Equalizer 3” almost like a thematic sequel to Scott’s movie.

Reviews for “The Equalizer 3” hit Tuesday morning, and they were generally mixed to positive at best, but it’s probably to be expected for a third movie in a franchise that never really gained the traction of Keanu Reeves‘ “John Wick” series. Still, with the extended holiday weekend and the popularity of Denzel as this character, there’s very little reason why “The Equalizer 3” can’t win the weekend with $35 million or more over the four-day weekend.

Offering some counter-programming, MGM will expand Emma Seligman‘s raunchy comedy “Bottoms,” starring Rachel Sennott and Ayo Edebiri, into 700 theaters after a fantastic debut weekend in 10 theaters in New York, L.A., San Francisco and Austin. It averaged over $51k per venue, which is on par with the opening of the Best Picture-winning “Everything Everywhere All at Once” last year.

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That movie went on to make $77 million domestically, though “Bottoms” is a very different contender, a raunchy high-school comedy with Sennott and Edebiri playing queer teenagers who devise a plan to hook up with cheerleaders by starting a self-defense club for the school’s female populace.

It’s often difficult figuring out how well a movie might expand after opening so well, and “Bottoms” is expanding quicker than “Everything Everywhere,” which made $6 million in its first weekend of wide release in 1,250 theaters. Although that movie also debuted at SXSW and has LGBTQ+ elements (as well as lots of similar weirdness), “Bottoms” seems like it will appeal to younger moviegoers, older teens and 20-somethings, but not just women.

Granted, “Bottoms” has received equally glowing reviews since debuting at the SXSW Film Festival, and buzz is likely to remain high, going by its Audience Score on RottenTomatoes, so this could very well break into the low-end of the Top 10 with $2 to 3 million over the four-day holiday, then we’ll have to see whether MGM can expand it further.

With no previews to pad its opening weekend, “Gran Turismo” will probably fall behind “Barbie” in their second weekend together, with “Blue Beetle” holding off “Oppenheimer” for fourth place.

Check back on Monday to see how the movies did over Labor Day weekend, and also check out Gold Derby’s September preview, looking at the other releases for the month.

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