2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Drama Writing
When it comes to the 2023 Best Drama Writing Emmy race, there isn’t much chance of any scripter beating Jesse Armstrong, who is looking to extend his perfect “Succession” record into its fourth and final year. Even though the HBO show currently has just one writing nomination and three directing ones, it is significantly safer in the former contest given Armstrong’s remarkable success rate. If he does earn his series another win, it will rank behind “The Sopranos” and alongside “The Defenders” as one of the three most-honored programs in this writing category’s history.
The only show with multiple 2023 Best Drama Writing nominations is “Better Call Saul,” which concluded last summer after six seasons and has yet to win an Emmy at all. Joining “Succession” in having one entry apiece are new series “Andor,” “Bad Sisters,” and “The Last of Us,” as well as 2022 Best TV Movie/Limited Series Writing winner “The White Lotus,” which is presently classified as a continuing drama due to its second season’s incorporation of preexisting characters.
In order to determine whether Armstrong’s streak is in any real danger of breaking, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 25 other Primetime Emmy categories.
“Andor” — Beau Willimon
Episode: “One Way Out”
This series, which is nominated here for its first season’s antepenultimate episode, follows “The Mandalorian” (2021) as the second “Star Wars” show to make an appearance in this category. Prior to earning recognition for helping to tell the story of Rebel Alliance member Cassian Andor (Diego Luna), Willimon picked up one writing (2014) and four producing (2013-2016) bids for “House of Cards.”
“Bad Sisters” — Brett Baer, Dave Finkel, and Sharon Horgan
Episode: “The Prick”
The only episode in this lineup with multiple writers would be the first such winner of this award since “The Americans” in 2018. Prior to developing and producing this new series and each penning several of its scripts, this trio amassed a collective total of three Emmy nominations, including Baer and Finkel’s successful shared ones for Best Comedy Series (“30 Rock,” 2007) and Best Main Title Design (“United States of Tara,” 2009). Along with comedic leads Bill Hader (“Barry”) and Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”), Horgan is one of three people recognized as both an actor and writer this year.
“Better Call Saul” — Gordon Smith
Episode: “Point and Shoot”
The second part of the sixth “Better Call Saul” season consists of just half a dozen episodes, the first and last of which are both included in this lineup. Smith’s fourth notice for the crime drama (following ones in 2015, 2017, and 2020) comes for his midseason premiere teleplay, which focuses on bringing an end to the dangerous rivalry between southwestern drug lords Gus Fring (Giancarlo Esposito) and Lalo Salamanca (Tony Dalton).
“Better Call Saul” — Peter Gould
Episode: “Saul Gone”
In the very last “Better Call Saul” episode, the 13-year saga of Jimmy “Saul Goodman” McGill (Bob Odenkirk) comes to a close as the former lawyer finally fesses up to his misdeeds and is handed a hefty prison sentence. In addition to a 2019 writing nomination for this show, Gould’s Emmys resume includes 2013-2014 Best Drama Series wins for its parent series, “Breaking Bad,” and producing victories for two short form “Better Call Saul” spinoffs.
“The Last of Us” — Craig Mazin
Episode: “Long, Long Time”
Mazin, who won writing and producing Emmys for the limited series “Chernobyl” in 2019, co-created this show alongside Neil Druckmann, the creative director of the Playstation game on which it is based. In this third episode of the first season (one of six Mazin wrote on his own), viewers learn more about the plot-driving apocalyptic virus by witnessing its effect on the lives of two male survivors who develop a 16-year romantic relationship.
“Succession” — Jesse Armstrong
Episode: “Connor’s Wedding”
If Armstrong (who also shared in his show’s two Best Drama Series wins) achieves his fourth writing victory for this episode focused on the death of Logan Roy (Brian Cox), he will solely rank behind six-time champ Rod Serling on the list of most-awarded individuals in this category’s history . Since Serling was lauded for his work on four different programs, Armstrong would make history as the first writer to win four Emmys for a single drama or comedy series.
“The White Lotus” — Mike White
Episode: “Arrivederci”
Unlike nearly all TV series, this two-season one has only ever had one credited director and writer, who also serves as its creator and one of its executive producers. White’s second consecutive writing win and first in this category would come for his second season finale script, which reveals the fates of various intermingling guests and employees of the titular Sicilian resort.
So, what will win the 2023 Emmy for Best Drama Writing? Due to the extremely positive response to “Connor’s Wedding” since it aired and the fact that a slim majority of all concurrent writing and directing-winning drama series each achieved both honors for a single episode, it stands to reason that “Succession” will take the two prizes this year. Even if its second consecutive triple dip in the directing category again causes its downfall there, it’s still practically sure to maintain its writing record and be named the year’s Best Drama Series for the third time.
It is worth pointing out that things might go differently for Armstrong this year since, for the first time, he’s not nominated for a season finale script. However, “Connor’s Wedding” is arguably the most revered “Succession” episode of all (as evidenced by its singularly staggering IMDb rating of 9.9 out of 10) and is guaranteed to be individually honored by the TV academy somehow, if not in multiple ways.
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