Super Tuesday could be meaningless if Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire

Many political strategists consider national primary polls taken before voting begins to be largely useless. Over the past several decades, fields on both the Republican and Democratic sides routinely reshuffle as early-state voters weigh in.

In early 2020, for instance, some journalists and political analysts had practically declared Joe Biden's candidacy to be over after he fared poorly in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary. But Biden's decisive win in South Carolina, powered by the state's Black Democrats, reset the entire field. After several candidates dropped out and endorsed Biden, he won 10 of 14 contests on Super Tuesday, quickly emerging as the frontrunner for the nomination.

For Biden, the one-two punch of South Carolina followed by Super Tuesday proved definitive.

But the 2024 Republican primary is a different beast altogether. First off, Republicans use a winner-take-all delegate system (versus Democrats' proportional approach). Second, former President Donald Trump, despite his four criminal indictments, is both a quasi-incumbent and prohibitive frontrunner.

Given Trump's status, the March 4, 2024, trial date set by U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan in Trump's federal election conspiracy case makes the early states even more crucial to the Republican primary’s trajectory. In fact, it's quite possible Trump could simply have too much momentum to be stopped by the time Super Tuesday hits on March 5 and voters in more than a dozen states head to the polls.

"[I]f the current trends in the Republican primary hold - and they may or may not - but if they do, we'll be well past the point where Donald Trump is not just the prohibitive favorite, but the prohibitive nominee," Doug Heye, a former communications director for the Republican National Committee, told NPR Tuesday.

Heye said the early March court date could render Super Tuesday meaningless in the sense that any sort of comeback for a Trump rival would be next to impossible.

"I think what we see with these dates being scheduled is it means that Iowa - especially Iowa - but also New Hampshire, are that much more important," Heye said. "A Donald Trump who wins in Iowa and New Hampshire may be unstoppable. And whatever happens come Super Tuesday or after is too late."

Nationally, Trump continues to dominate his rivals in the polls, despite the fact that his post-indictments bounce among Republican voters may be waning. At the same time, Trump is also strongly favored in the most recent polling in early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

The main problem for Republicans hoping to defeat Trump is that no single challenger has emerged as the odds-on favorite to do it, even though Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis remains in the strongest polling position nationally to pull off an upset.

It's always worth noting, however, that the Republican Party's current situation is without historical parallel, so really anything could happen.