Shear-ravaged Hurricane Lee drops to a Category 2, still poses ‘dangerous’ risk at Florida beaches
Hurricane Lee, having battled “southwesterly shear” recently, saw a continuation of its volatile past three days late Saturday night as it was downgraded from a Category 3 storm to a Category 2 in the 11 p.m. advisory.
At the 11 p.m. Saturday advisory, Lee’s maximum sustained winds were at 105 mph, however, in line with the system’s up-and-down profile, the National Hurricane Center has forecast it to regain major hurricane status on Sunday.
Lee was a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph early Thursday, but by late that night, its top wind speed had spiked to 160 mph, making it a colossus Category 5 storm. By early Friday, Lee’s maximum sustained winds intensified to 165 mph before declining.
“Lee seems to be recovering from the effects of the strong southwesterly shear,” according to the hurricane center. “The central dense overcast has expanded, with periodic bursts of deep convection and increased lightning activity near the center.”
Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into early next week.
Forecasts suggest Lee will begin to curve north and spare landfall in Florida.
“It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic,” forecasters wrote in the 5 p.m. advisory Saturday.
In its 11 p.m. Saturday update, the hurricane center said the storm is located about 285 miles northeast of the Caribbean’s northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 9 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extend out 35 miles and tropical storm-force winds extend out 185 miles.
The hurricane center warned that “dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday.”
The weather service added that South Florida beaches will experience “deteriorating beach and boating conditions” by the middle of next week with a likely risk of deadly rip currents starting as soon as Monday. As Lee gradually builds swells during the week, there could be some minor beach erosion from rough surf pounding against shore at high tide.
Lee is the fourth Atlantic hurricane of the 2023 season, behind Don, Franklin and Idalia, and the third major hurricane, meaning Category 3 or above. Franklin and Idalia were major hurricanes.
Forecasters are also watching for two disturbances, one in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and another yet to emerge off the west coast of Africa. The former was given a 30% chance of development in the next two to seven days while has a 30% chance over the next week.
The eastern Atlantic wave is expected to move slowly west. The coastal one is forecast to move faster, at 15-20 mph on a west-northwest track.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Margot is expected to become a hurricane in the next few days, forecasters said Sunday. If so, it would become the season’s fifth.
The storm formed over the eastern tropical Atlantic on Thursday, and is forecast to turn north, not currently a threat to South Florida.
As of 11 p.m. Saturday, the system was about 1,060 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, moving northwest at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. It should continue moving in that direction over the next several days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.
The season officially runs from June 1-Nov. 30.