Hurricane Lee expected to strengthen back to Category 3 and ‘grow in size’
The latest forecast for Hurricane Lee indicates it will once again strengthen into a Category 3 major hurricane and “grow in size” despite battling storm-shredding wind shear that dropped it to a Category 2 Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
At the 5 a.m. Sunday advisory, Lee’s maximum sustained winds were holding steady at 105 mph, though the National Hurricane Center has forecast it to regain major hurricane status early this week.
Lee was a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph early Thursday, but by late that night, its top wind speed had spiked to 160 mph, making it a colossus Category 5 storm. By early Friday, Lee’s maximum sustained winds intensified to 165 mph before declining.
“Lee seems to be recovering from the effects of the strong southwesterly shear,” according to the hurricane center. “The central dense overcast has expanded, with periodic bursts of deep convection and increased lightning activity near the center.”
Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Lee’s curve north will spare Florida, according to the forecast.
“It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic,” forecasters wrote in the 5 p.m. advisory Saturday.
Early Sunday, Lee was located about 280 miles northeast of the Caribbean’s northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 9 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extend out 45 miles and tropical storm-force winds extend out 160 miles.
The hurricane center warned that “dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday.”
The weather service added that South Florida beaches will experience “deteriorating beach and boating conditions” by the middle of next week with a likely risk of deadly rip currents starting as soon as Monday. As Lee gradually builds swells during the week, there could be some minor beach erosion from rough surf pounding against shore at high tide.
Lee is the fourth Atlantic hurricane of the 2023 season, behind Don, Franklin and Idalia, and the third major hurricane, meaning Category 3 or above. Franklin and Idalia were major hurricanes.
Forecasters are also watching for two disturbances, one in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and another yet to emerge off the west coast of Africa. The former was given a 30% chance of development in the next two to seven days while has a 30% chance over the next week.
The eastern Atlantic wave is expected to move slowly west. The coastal one is forecast to move faster, at 15-20 mph on a west-northwest track.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Margot is expected to become a hurricane in the next few days, forecasters said Sunday. If so, it would become the season’s fifth.
The storm formed over the eastern tropical Atlantic on Thursday, and is forecast to turn north, not currently a threat to South Florida.
As of 5 a.m. Sunday, Margot was about 1,000 miles west-northwest of Africa’s Cabo Verde Islands, moving northwest at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. It should continue moving in that direction over the next several days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.
The season officially runs from through Nov. 30.