How the ‘Dune: Part Two’ release delay impacts the 2024 Oscar race

On August 24, it was confirmed that the highly-anticipated sequel to “Dune” (2021), which was supposed to be released in early November, has been pushed back to March of 2024 amidst the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes. The first film was a major Academy Awards success story, receiving 10 nominations and winning the most Oscars (six) of any film since “Gravity” in 2014. Aside from receiving above-the-line nominations in picture and screenplay, it was a big tech awards player, taking home trophies for score, sound, editing, cinematography, production design and visual effects. 

Before the announcement was made, our Gold Derby combined odds had “Dune: Part Two” in sixth for best picture, fifth in director, and fifth in adapted screenplay, with stars Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya as longshots for acting nominations and below-the-line categories not yet available on the site. Now that the flick is out of the running, it begs the question: which films stand to gain the most from “Dune Two’s” departure from the 2024 Oscar race?

The easiest answer is “Oppenheimer,” which was poised to be “Dune 2’s” direct competitor in the tech categories. The Christopher Nolan biopic is surely in the running for each of the categories previously won by “Dune,” especially sound, score and editing. Sound seems like one category that has become a one-horse race after “Dune’s delay, while Ludwig Göransson no longer needs to compete with two-time winner Hans Zimmer in score. Film editing, on the other hand, will still likely be a tight race between “Oppenheimer” and Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” but at least they won’t have to compete with Joe Walker, who returned for the sequel after his Oscar win for “Dune.” Similarly, best director will now likely be awarded to Nolan or Scorsese. Though “Dune” director Denis Villeneuve was famously snubbed for the first film, he could have been subject to a redemption arc if the sequel managed to surpass expectations. As it stands, however, Villeneuve will have to wait until next year.

For the reasons mentioned above, “Killers of the Flower Moon” also stands to gain from “Dune: Part Two’s” delay. Aside from editing and directing, it’ll face less competition for best cinematography, where Greg Fraser would have hoped to score a second win in the franchise. Of course, “Killers” also happens to be a strong best picture contender, and its chances will only get better with the sequel to an Oscars juggernaut out of the picture. 

Production and costume design seem like categories tailor-made for “Barbie” this year, but the film’s designers are likely still a little relieved that “Dune: Part Two” will no longer be competing against them. “Dune” won top production design and was nominated for its costume design as well (where it lost to “Cruella”). The sequel would likely have been nominated for both this season, and maybe even challenged for the gold. “Dune” lost best makeup and hair to “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” in 2022, and will now pose no threat to likely nominees “Barbie,” “Maestro” and “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.” 

One category which already seemed locked for “Dune Two” was visual effects, especially since the other big tech player this year, “Oppenheimer,” famously uses a limited amount of CGI (the Trinity explosion effect is said to have been shot practically). Now that the sci-fi epic has been delayed, the category seems completely wide open. Will “Oppenheimer’s use of practical effects appeal to Oscar voters? After all, three of Nolan’s previous films have won this category. A win here for “Oppenheimer” would be akin to when “First Man,” another dialogue-driven drama biopic with few VFX-heavy scenes, took home the award in 2019. 

Alternatively, we could see other blockbuster fare win for visual effects. After thirteen Marvel Cinematic Universe films have gotten nominated for this category, this year could be its opportunity to finally win it. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” would seem the most likely of the three MCU films released this year, since both of its predecessors were nominated. Other possible winners include “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” which could become the fourth animated film to get nominated in the category (though it would be the first winner); “The Creator,” whose director Gareth Edwards has worked as a VFX artist and has directed another film nominated for the category in the past; “Rebel Moon,” a possible space opera replacement for “Dune” directed by blockbuster icon Zack Snyder; and “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” which dabbled in de-aging effects, a practice that helped earn “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “The Irishman” a win and a nomination in the category, respectively.

Lastly, films that were once on the cusp of a nomination could now realistically see themselves sneaking in. “Anatomy of a Fall” has risen to the top 10 in our combined best picture odds, while Greta Gerwig has taken Villeneuve’s fourth-place spot for best director. In adapted screenplay, Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” is now in the top five, and will hope to stay there throughout awards season. If “Dune: Part 2” is a film capable of getting double-digit nominations like its predecessor, we’ll see the filmmakers of several movies across the above- and below-the-line categories proudly hear their names on nominations morning, when they may not have otherwise done so.

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