McCarthy runs head first into conservatives' spending stonewall

A day after Speaker Kevin McCarthy dramatically escalated his party’s impeachment drive, he is still struggling to contain a conservative revolt that could soon plunge Washington into a shutdown.

The most immediate sign that the speaker’s troubles have not abated is defense spending legislation slated to come to the floor later on Wednesday. It’s a Republican bill, but McCarthy lacks the votes to bring it up it because of objections from hardliners and a smattering of absences.

But that's just one in a series of problems. It’s become clear that McCarthy’s move to placate his right flank by launching an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden isn’t working. He still lacks the votes to pass a stopgap bill to keep the government open past Sept. 30. And some conservatives are still threatening to force a vote stripping him of the speakership.

Even McCarthy loyalists are concerned about the lack of options for a high-stakes September, with some privately saying they're worried about shouldering blame for a shutdown than the impeachment inquiry. Democrats need to flip just a handful of seats to take back the House next year.

“We have an evolving strategy going right now. This whole place is about chaos, right?” Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.) said of the September game plan.

McCarthy did lay out one potential spending strategy to his members on Wednesday. He’s aiming to unify the conference behind a package of the GOP’s biggest funding priorities, namely the Pentagon and homeland security bills.

But even that plan is far from certain to succeed, multiple members said. Some Freedom Caucus are still resistant, no matter how the spending bills are assembled.

In private remarks to his conference Wednesday, McCarthy encouraged his members to leave the meeting united, arguing that it would allow them to go to “battle” against a “united” Senate, according to Republicans familiar with the closed-door meeting. He said that passing the appropriations bills would give him leverage in the negotiations. He also acknowledged the need for a short-term government funding bill, given they don’t have enough time to pass the 11 remaining appropriations bills before the end-of-month deadline.

Yet the reality is that his conservative members have enough votes to derail every one of McCarthy's spending priorities — the defense spending bill on Wednesday, virtually all of the other 10 bills still on the docket and any kind of short-term funding bill. GOP leaders punted plans to take up the defense bill in the early afternoon, with widespread doubt that it can be resolved this week. Leadership is still meeting with holdouts on Wednesday, but some are privately preparing to pull the defense bill entirely — marking McCarthy’s second humiliating defeat this summer on spending bills written by his own party.

“We’re in a difficult spot. We got a big challenge ahead of us. Are we going to be equal to the task? We’re going to see here this afternoon,” Womack said earlier Wednesday, referring to the GOP’s defense bill that leadership had hoped to bring up in a matter of hours.

If it fails, Womack said: “I'm going to be really disappointed in our conference.”

Even House GOP leaders declined to say Wednesday whether they would be able to bring up the defense bill.

“The whip took place last night,” Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told POLITICO, after a leadership press conference. While he declined to share details, several GOP members and aides have confirmed to POLITICO that they lacked the votes — including on the procedural vote needed to bring the bill to the floor. Even if they clear the first hurdle, more Republicans are preparing to vote against the defense bill, guaranteeing it fails.

Hanging over the conference’s spending fight is not just a possible shutdown, but also McCarthy’s grip on the speakership.

The Californian is navigating growing threats from his most ardent critics that they'll trigger an effort to boot him if he leans on help from Democrats to keep the government open — which he’ll almost certainly need to do in the end — or fails to satisfy conservative spending demands.

“I think there has to be a reckoning,” said Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.), who has characterized himself as “personally prepared to support” a so-called motion to vacate against McCarthy.

Bishop isn’t alone. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a Freedom Caucus member, went to the floor this week to threaten to trigger the motion to vacate against McCarthy. And others in the group aren’t ruling it out — even after McCarthy embraced their long-time demands to launch an impeachment inquiry.

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), another member of the group, said that “everything is on the table,” while Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) didn’t rule out supporting an effort to boot the speaker.

“He's kind of boxed himself in,” Biggs added about McCarthy’s position in the spending fight.

While no one is ready to force the issue yet, hardliners are discussing the idea. Bishop said the timing is based on “sort of a feel for when the thing is right.”

Still, it’s not clear that McCarthy’s rebels have picked up new supporters for trying to oust him — and they still don’t have a consensus pick on who could get the votes needed to replace him. Nor is the roughly 35-member House Freedom Caucus unified on taking such steps against McCarthy.

If there’s going to be a renewed effort to oust McCarthy, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) argued it would have to come from the ranks of Republicans who supported him in January, who he said still back the speaker: “Matt didn’t vote for the speaker ever. … A motion to vacate would be based on new people who aren’t happy with the speaker.”

Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) — an occasional McCarthy headache — was more blunt about the speaker’s ability to survive, comparing him to a well-known fictional mobster.

“He’s like freakin’ Tony Soprano. Every time you think you’ve killed him, he comes back stronger,” he said.

Asked about Soprano’s habit of killing people, Burchett quipped: “But he wins.”