Will Tracy Chapman win at the CMA Awards 35 years after writing ‘Fast Car’?

Tracy Chapman‘s 1988 breakthrough hit song “Fast Car” has had a popular resurgence thanks to a cover recorded by country star Luke Combs. Now, perhaps surprisingly, Chapman finds herself nominated for Song of the Year at the 2023 Country Music Association Awards for penning the classic. Can her songwriting win her a trophy 35 years after she originally released the song?

Chapman’s version of “Fast Car” peaked at number-six on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart. It also earned her Record of the Year and Song of the Year nominations at the Grammys, where she won Best Female Pop Vocal Performance. Combs’s version was released as a single this past April, and since then it has exceeded the commercial performance of the original, spending eight weeks at its number-two peak as of this writing. Reacting to the song’s 2023 renaissance, Chapman told Billboard, “I never expected to find myself on the country charts, but I’m honored to be there. I’m happy for Luke and his success and grateful that new fans have found and embraced ‘Fast Car.'”

So what are the chances that Chapman actually wins Song of the Year at the CMAs? Well, on one hand, it seems like it would be impossible to deny the craft of a song that has endured on the cultural landscape for more than three decades. The composition also proved durable enough to cross genres and become a country music hit. And it would be a rare opportunity to honor a Black woman for her contributions to a genre where Black women are underrepresented. But perhaps voters will be hesitant to award a songwriting achievement that took place before many of this year’s CMA nominees were even born.

According to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users who have placed their bets thus far here in our predictions center, it’s going to be a close race. “Fast Car” ranks second in our odds, right behind “Wait in the Truck,” which was penned by Renee Blair, Michael Hardy, Hunter Phelps and Jordan Schmidt and performed by Hardy and Lainey Wilson. To put things into perspective, Hardy was born in 1990 and Wilson was born in 1992, so “Fast Car” has been driving all their lives.

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