Why Zach Bryan could be a dark horse contender at the 2024 Grammys

It has been a great couple of weeks for country-rock star Zach Bryan. While the singer-songwriter already broke out last year with his major label debut, “American Heartbreak,” he has reached new levels of success with his self-titled August release, “Zach Bryan.” The new record debuted atop the Billboard 200 with 200,000 units in its first week, and has spent multiple weeks atop the chart. Such success is definitely rare for a country act whose name isn’t Morgan Wallen, especially considering Bryan doesn’t really make music for country radio and is pretty much riding on streaming alone. His singles are doing just fine, though: his Kacey Musgraves collaboration, “I Remember Everything,” debuted at number-one on the Hot 100. Here’s how Bryan could end up being this year’s dark horse at the Grammys.

In the country categories, Bryan might be voters’ salvation this year. Many dreaded the possibility that Morgan Wallen — arguably the biggest star of the year in the US — might pick up a Grammy or two due to the success of his album “One Thing At A Time.” However, Bryan might be able to upset him. Both albums are big commercial hits, so awarding Bryan wouldn’t make voters seem out of touch. Bryan’s music also focuses more on songwriting, which country voters tend to appreciate. Most importantly, Bryan’s more authentic, less polished sound might connect with voters more than Wallen’s made-for-radio material. Not only that, Bryan also aligns with the academy’s values more, being a vocal ally for the LGBTQIA+ community and, well, not being involved in racist controversies.

There’s also a chance for Bryan in the top categories. Country music tends to underperform in Album, Record and Song of the Year, but that’s likely due to how few popular country songs have cross-genre appeal. In Bryan’s case, this is far from the truth. His unique blend of country, Americana, and rock makes him a possible vote-getter from all these blocs within the recording academy, as well as from pop voters who have been exposed to Bryan due to his crossover success. The record might perform similarly to cross-genre appealing Album of the Year nominees like Brandi Carlile’s “In These Silent Days” and Kacey Musgraves’s “Golden Hour.”

Appeal to multiple genre audiences can lead to wins too. This year in particular, it’s expected that pop stars Taylor Swift (“Midnights“) and Olivia Rodrigo (“Guts“) will battle for Album of the Year with R&B star SZA (“SOS“). However, if Bryan is nominated, he could win by monopolizing country and Americana votes, and likely getting some rock votes too (although Foo Fighters might make that harder). Like we saw with Bonnie Raitt’s surprise win for Song of the Year this past year, sometimes Americana and country can be very powerful when pop artists split the vote.

So Bryan could very well be an unexpected frontrunner in some categories. And with country music’s resurgence in the past couple of years, voters may want to support an artist from the genre. Bryan would be a way to do so without selling out to country radio or nominating someone who could put the Grammys in an uncomfortable PR position. You might want to add Bryan in your prediction lists if you don’t have him there already.

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