Lauren Boebert won her last election by fewer than 600 votes. Her vaping incident at Beetlejuice could doom her reelection bid and cost Republicans control of the House

• In 2022, Rep. Lauren Boebert won her bid for reelection by less than 600 votes.
• In mid-September, she was kicked out of a musical after she vaped and took photos on her phone.
• The incident may have hurt her chances of retaining her seat in 2024, and could cost the GOP.

One wild night in Denver could cost the Republican Party its majority come 2025.

On September 10, GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert was escorted out of a performance of "Beetlejuice" after officials there accused her of loudly "causing a disturbance," vaping, and taking images on her phone during the show.

Boebert and her campaign initially downplayed the incident. She told her followers to see the show. "I plead guilty to laughing and singing too loud," she tweeted.

But after more details began to emerge — a pregnant woman seated behind Boebert said the lawmaker refused to quit vaping when asked, and surveillance footage showed her flicking off theater staff and confirmed the vaping — Boebert issued a more serious and humble apology than before.

"There's no perfect blueprint for going through a public and difficult divorce, which over the past few months has made for a challenging personal time for me and my entire family," Boebert said in a statement Friday. "I've tried to handle it with strength and grace as best I can."

Boebert and her husband of nearly two decades are in the midst of divorce proceedings. In December 2022, her teenage son called 911 to report that his father was "throwing" him around the house. 

While some of her apology may stem from a sense of genuine regret and embarrassment, Boebert is usually not one to back down from poor publicity, which means there's likely another reason for why she is suddenly backtracking so thoroughly.

Boebert's on thin ice with her constituents

First elected to Congress in 2020, Boebert won her election in part by painting her Democratic opponent as someone with a "socialist agenda" who wanted "more government control."

While freshman lawmakers generally keep a lower profile as they have fewer committee responsibilities, Boebert routinely made herself a frequent topic of conversation on Capitol Hill during her first term by live-tweeting President Joe Biden's first State of the Union, making Islamophobic comments about her colleagues, and more.

Her antics didn't seem especially popular with her constituents. 

In 2022, two years after Boebert won her congressional seat by more than 26,500 votes, the Republican legislator narrowly retained her seat against Democratic challenger Adam Frisch by fewer than 600 total votes.

Despite barely winning her reelection campaign, Boebert started her second term in office in largely the same manner she did in her first. She heckled Biden during the State of the Union as he discussed his dead son, got into a heated exchange with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene on the House floor leading to Boebert getting called a "little bitch," and said she was "tired" of the separation between church and state. 

Political experts at the Cook Political Report have deemed Boebert's race as a "Toss Up," meaning that "either party has a good chance of winning."

As the 2024 election approaches, Boebert's likely opponent, Frisch, has been campaigning actively and raising money in his attempt to dethrone her. Voters appear to be on board. In July, Frisch's campaign reported bringing in more than $1.75 million more than Boebert.

If Frisch successfully unseats Boebert, his election could very well help flip the House of Representatives in favor of the Democratic Party.

Republicans only hold ten more seats in the House than Democrats, but after recently court-mandated redistricting in states like Alabama and New York, that slim majority is in peril this upcoming presidential election season.

With this in mind, Boebert's earnest apology could be seen as damage control to not only save her own seat but prevent her entire party from losing control of the House.