2023 Emmys: Can ‘Beef’ or ‘Dahmer’ overcome vote-splitting in directing race?

The big story in this year’s Best Limited Series/TV Movie Directing Emmy category is that for the first time ever, there are two programs with multiple slots. Nomination leaders “Beef” and “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story,” both from Netflix, have two individual mentions in this category and 13 overall apiece. Can either of them overcome vote-splitting in the directing race?

This also marks the return of the television film in directing for the first time since 2018 with Hulu’s “Prey,” which is also the first movie to receive writing and directing noms since “Bessie” in 2015. Rounding out the line-up is FX’s “Fleishman Is in Trouble,” the only limited series that has the same episode recognized in writing and directing.

Here are Gold Derby’s current Best Limited/Movie Directing Emmy 2023 racetrack odds:

“Beef” (“Figures of Light” by Lee Sung Jin) — 37/10 odds
“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (“Silenced” by Paris Barclay) — 4/1 odds
“Beef” (“The Great Fabricator” by Jake Schreier) — 5/1 odds
“Fleishman Is in Trouble” (“Me-Time” by Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris) — 11/2 odds
“Prey” (by Dan Trachtenberg) — 6/1 odds
“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (“Bad Meat” by Carl Franklin) — 7/1 odds

Our odds say “Beef” will take this category with the final blueprint of “Beef,” which is one of three nominations this year for creator Lee Sung-Jin. It takes place immediately after the prior installment where Danny (Steven Yeun) and Amy (Ali Wong) end up stranded and injured after a chase leads to their cars going off a cliff. While they initially try to attack and hurt each other, they end up finding comfort and have a true reconciliation after their rescue ends on a scary and ambiguous note. This episode is no slouch in direction as it plays with examining close-ups between the characters and shots of the wilderness throughout the day.

In third place is “Beef’s” penultimate chapter, “The Great Fabricator,” which stands out from the other for its many directorial achievements. In particular, there’s a horrifying hostage sequence inside a luxurious mansion where all the characters try to escape in different directions. The terror is captured through action shots and hazy colors with glimmers of weapon-mounted lights. Along with being behind the camera, Jake Schreier is also part of the producing team of “Beef.”

Out of the two episodes up for “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story,” the one that seems likeliest to triumph according to our odds is the sixth episode, “Silenced.” Paris Barclay has been a directing staple on television with nine nominations and was the former President of the Directors Guild of America. A perennial director for Ryan Murphy, his episode focuses on the titular serial killer (Evan Peters) and his relationship with deaf model Tony Hughes (Rodney Burford), who later becomes Dahmer’s 12th victim. This is Barclay’s first try in the limited series directing category, after two consecutive wins for “NYPD Blue.”

The other “Dahmer” episode is the premiere, “Bad Meat,” which introduces Jeffrey Dahmer as he unsuccessfully courts one of his victims, who manages to escape. Dahmer is soon arrested, and the episode delves into his apartment and cannibal lifestyle. Director Carl Franklin was last noticed in 2014 for helming “House of Cards.”

The nom for “Fleishman Is in Trouble” is distinctive in that it showcases the only directing duo in the bunch, married couple Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris. In another penultimate entry, this explores the history of Rachel Fleishman (Claire Danes) through her lens as the troubled ex-wife of Toby (Jesse Eisenberg) as she reveals to his friend Libby (Lizzy Caplan) about her childhood and extramarital affair.

Finally, the lone movie in this category is the seventh issue of the science fiction horror “Predator” franchise, “Prey.” It harkens back to 1719 as a young Comanche woman battles the monstrous humanoid creature, while also protecting her tribe from French fur traders. Dan Trachtenberg also shares a writing citation for the Hulu movie.

So who will ultimately win Best Limited Series/TV Movie Directing? This category may be more tougher to predict as “Beef” has two worthy entries and it can be harder to decide between them than the ones for “Dahmer.” Despite “Dahmer’s” double recognition here, it is the only show that does not have a corresponding writing nomination, which has not resulted in a victory at the Emmys since 1999.

It is also uncertain if the other two programs have enough support to overtake “Beef.” Even though “Prey” achieved both writing and directing bids, mimicking past telefilms like “Bessie” and “The Normal Heart,” neither triumphed in either category. And they both won Best Television Movie, something that “Prey” is currently not predicted for.

This category is also kinder to the eventual recipient of Best Limited Series with the last five of the seven series winning both. Along with a predicted writing and program win for “Beef,” it seems safe to bet that one of the final two episodes of the series will be victorious and if so, the series will join recent winners like “Chernobyl” and “The White Lotus” to nab the trifecta of writing, directing and limited series, as well as be the first since “Fargo” in 2014 to prevail against another one of its episodes.

PREDICT the 2023 Emmy winners through January 15

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