Menendez indictment opens door for crowded Senate primary

A rowdy and crowded primary could be in store for New Jersey Democrats as much of the party has come out against the now-indicted Sen. Robert Menendez (D).

Menendez has asserted his innocence against bribery charges brought last month, while many of his Senate Democratic colleagues and state party leaders are calling on him to resign. Instead, Menendez has given no indication that he would step down or choose not to run for reelection in 2024.

That has led at least one House Democrat to mount a primary challenge to unseat him and could yield more challengers in the coming months.

“I think we’re in a state of three-dimensional chess because not only is there the federal elections going on in ‘24, you have state Senate and state Assembly races happening right now, and then in ‘25 you have the governor’s race,” said Brian Doory, a Democratic strategist and the managing director of public affairs firm Firehouse Strategies.

New Jersey holds legislative elections in odd-numbered years and will hold its next governor’s race in 2025.

Menendez, who has represented the solid blue state in the Senate since 2006, was indicted along with his wife and three businessmen on charges of bribery. Prosecutors allege that Menendez and his wife accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes in exchange for trying to interfere with criminal investigations into the businessmen and advocating on behalf of the Egyptian government’s interests, among other alleged conduct.

The unsealing of the indictment on Sept. 22 led to a flood of calls from Democratic senators, including fellow New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, and state party leaders, including New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D), for Menendez to resign.

Rep. Andy Kim (D) became the first major candidate to mount a challenge to Menendez, announcing his campaign the day after the indictment was unsealed.

“After calls to resign, Senator Menendez said ‘I am not going anywhere.’ As a result, I feel compelled to run against him,” Kim wrote in a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.

A few lesser-known candidates had joined the race before Kim, and other names have recently been floated, including Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Donald Norcross (D-N.J.). 

“We’ll take it one day at a time,” Norcross said last week regarding a possible Senate run.

New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy has also received calls to run for the seat, possibly adding what would be a first-time candidate with name recognition to the mix.

Early polling Thursday from progressive think tank Data for Progress showed Menendez's approval rating deeply underwater with Democratic voters, as more than three quarters view him unfavorably.

Kim came out in a much stronger position, with 51 percent of Democratic respondents viewing him at least somewhat favorably and only 5 percent viewing him unfavorably.

The numbers paint the picture of a steep hill for Menendez to climb for the nomination, but the senator is not expected to change course for now, Democratic strategists say.

“The only leverage he has is his Senate seat, so why would he resign now?” said Julie Roginsky, a Democratic strategist who has advised various New Jersey officials.

Roginsky said staying in office would help him raise money for a legal defense fund and could be used as a bargaining chip in any negotiation with the government for the charges he faces. 

New Jersey’s ballot system of “county lines” could complicate Menendez’s reelection bid and possibly lead him to resign, Roginsky said.

In New Jersey, where a candidate is placed on the ballot can be a “massive advantage,” Roginsky said. The most advantageous place for a candidate to be is in the same column as other major candidates since voters tend to vote down that line.

In 2024, that would likely be the same column as President Biden and the top choices for representative and other local offices.

If Menendez is not favored by most of the county Democratic party chairs or committees, which decide where to place candidates and who have mostly called for his resignation, then he might not be in the best position — literally — to win his primary.

Doory, who previously worked for former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D), said Menendez would likely see the most support in Hudson County, much of which he represented during his time in the House, but he would have trouble in other counties.

He said the only electoral path he sees for Menendez is if multiple other major candidates join the race and his “base” in Hudson County is enough to possibly get him across the finish line. The chair of the Hudson County Democratic Party was one of the only people to not call for Menendez’s resignation.

“Usually, you’ve got to start putting together two or three of the big counties like Bergen, Hudson, Essex to really start thinking about getting in a primary, and I don’t see those organizations at the county level getting behind him,” Doory said. 

Democratic strategist Henry de Koninck said Menendez’s fundraising capacity will likely be diminished compared with his last run for Senate in 2018.

That election came after Menendez faced a trial for separate unrelated allegations of bribery. The case ultimately resulted in a hung jury, and the charges were dropped, but a little-known progressive challenger to Menendez won nearly 40 percent in the Democratic primary.

“His opponent was not well-funded, did not [run] what would be considered a robust campaign, didn’t communicate broadly and still put up nearly 40 percent of the vote,” de Koninck said.

That could open the door for other candidates who run more efficient operations with more effective fundraising.

Strategists said if Tammy Murphy does decide to run, she would be a viable candidate because of her name recognition and the opportunities she has had to speak on various policy issues as first lady.

Brendan Gill, a Democratic strategist who worked as an adviser to Murphy and other New Jersey Democrats, said the first lady has created a “portfolio” of her own on issues like maternal health, reproductive health, education and the environment. He said she has also spent a lot of time raising money for her husband and for Democrats, demonstrating her fundraising abilities.

“Between her policy experience, her experience in the political space, her past experience both in the private sector and the other places that she served, she's a very viable statewide candidate,” Gill said.

Doory said Kim is a “tested campaigner” who has built alliances, contacts in his district and the state and a fundraising network.

Gill emphasized that every county has a different process for determining the county line, so candidates who run will need to basically compete in “21 different elections with 21 different strategies,” one for each of New Jersey’s counties. He said candidates’ success will depend on the region of the state they’re from and the time they spend with party members and presenting their credentials.

“Candidates that start early and understand those processes and stakeholders are at an advantage if you’re trying to run for statewide office,” he said.