Ireland v Scotland: Rugby World Cup 2023, Match Preview pt II – head to heads
Scotland’s starting lineup shows 5 changes from the side that lost 7 – 22 to Ireland at Murrayfield back in March with Blair Kinghorn, Darcy Graham and Ali Price in for Stuart Hogg, Kyle Steyn and Ben White in the backs plus Grant Gilchrist and Rory Darge replacing Jonny Gray and Matt Fagerson in the forwards. In total, 14 of the 23 featured against Ireland during the Six Nations.
The Irish XV only shows 2 changes to how they started earlier this year – Iain Henderson for James Ryan and Jamison Gibson-Park for Conor Murray. 18 of the 23 (including all of the starting XV) played some part in that most recent victory for Ireland over Scotland.
13 Irish players were in the 23 when these sides met in the opening round of the 2019 World Cup. There are just 6 returnees in the Scotland lineup with Finn Russell and Grant Gilchrist the only starters this time round who were also in the XV in Yokohama.
12 changes to Scotland’s starting XV from last Test (v Romania)
- 15 – Kinghorn for Smith
- 13 – Jones for Harris
- 12 – Tuipulotu for Redpath
- 11 – van der Merwe for Steyn
- 10 – Russell for Healy
- 1 – Schoeman for Bhatti
- 2 – Turner for Ashman
- 3 – Z. Fagerson for Sebastian
- 4 – Gray for Skinner
- 6 – Ritchie for Crosbie
- 7 – Darge for Watson
- 8 – Dempsey for M. Fagerson
2 changes to Ireland’s starting XV from last Test (v South Africa)
- 2 – Sheehan for Kelleher
- 5 – Henderson for Ryan
BACK 3 – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND
| 15 14 11 |
| Tries Average weight Total caps RWC matches Average age |
This will be the first time any player other than Stuart Hogg has filled the Scottish 15 shirt for a competitive match against Ireland since the 2011 Six Nations, when Chris Paterson started at full back.
Scotland’s back 3 players average better than 2 tries per game over the last 15 months (35 tries in 17 matches). They’ve been blanked by the best defences during that spell though – France and Ireland in the Six Nations plus South Africa at this World Cup. The attack needs to come up big in this game – if this trio are scoring then things must really be working.
CENTRES – ADVANTAGE IRELAND
| 13 12 |
| Tries Average weight Total caps RWC matches Average age |
While Sione Tuipulotu may be seen as a powerful up the guts runner his main contribution to the growth of this Scotland team has been to provide Finn Russell with a second playmaker right on his shoulder and change the picture of when and where Russell is taking the ball.
If Tuipulotu is looking for an example of how to keep growing and developing within a team he could do worse than try to emulate his direct opponent on Saturday. Bundee Aki is playing the best Test rugby of his life aged 33 and has gone from being the fella Ireland called upon to fill in if Garry Ringrose or Robbie Henshaw are unavailable to one of the first names on Andy Farrell’s teamsheet.
HALF BACKS – ADVANTAGE IRELAND
| 10 9 |
| Tries Average weight Total caps RWC matches Average age |
The respective 10s have been through this battle many times before. Both men have downplayed their role, insisting – not without merit – that they rely on the pack in front of them to provide decent possession and the backline around them to execute at the highest possible level.
So much revolves around these 2 players though. They are key to driving standards in their sides as well as heavily influencing just what their team’s style will look like.
Back in March, Scotland put the ball in Finn Russell’s hands 61 times to allow him to try and unlock the Irish defence. Meanwhile Johnny Sexton only had 37 touches (although from 10 minutes less game time) but was ultimately able to be the more influential of the two. It’s a story that has been repeated time and time again – will there be a different ending on Saturday evening?
FRONT ROW – ADVANTAGE IRELAND
| 1 2 3 |
| Total weight Tries Total caps RWC matches Average age |
Andrew Porter has only lost once in the last 30 games he has played for Ireland and Leinster. That’s the best streak of all those who play for the team from Dublin and the national side but by no means unusual.
The only time many of these players have tasted defeat in the last year was in the Champions Cup final against La Rochelle. The mental focus must be relentless. Lesser sides would lose concentration here or there in some minor game or other but the Leinster/ Ireland machine simply doesn’t seem to allow standards to drop.
SECOND ROW – EVEN
| 4 5 |
| Total weight Tries Total caps RWC matches Average age |
Scotland fans looking for positive omens might like to consider that Richie Gray has been involved in all 4 of the dark blues most recent wins over Ireland – in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2017. Come on people, those straws aren’t going to clutch themselves…
BACK ROW – ADVANTAGE IRELAND
| 6 7 8 |
| Total weight Tries Total caps RWC matches Average age |
Peter O’Mahony’s record against Scotland has just a single blemish on it. 11 matches played, 10 wins, 1 loss. That defeat in 2013 demonstrated that even the most dominant team cannot win if they don’t take their chances.
At Murrayfield in the Six Nations a decade ago, Ireland had 71% possession and 77% territory. They only had to attempt 48 tackles against an anaemic Scottish attack that managed just 102 metres with ball in hand. And yet the dark blues came away with the win thanks to 4 Greig Laidlaw penalties.
REPLACEMENT FORWARDS – ADVANTAGE IRELAND
| 16 17 18 19 20 21 |
| Average weight Tries Total caps RWC matches Average age |
This is the 8th time that Gregor Townsend has opted for a 6 forwards, 2 backs split on the bench. It was also deployed against France twice this year, arguably making somewhat of a contribution to comebacks in Paris and Saint-Etienne. Although in both games it still wasn’t enough to allow the Scots to get a positive result over the line.
REPLACEMENT BACKS – ADVANTAGE IRELAND
| 21 22 23 |
| Tries Average weight Total caps RWC matches Average age |
It has been a remarkable year and a bit for Ollie Smith, after only making his Test debut on last July’s tour of Argentina. Now he finds himself on the bench for one of Scotland’s biggest matches this century and poised to slot in at full back if any one of 6 different players gets injured.
Aggregates for the 23s:
| Tries Total weight Total caps RWC matches Average age |
* RWC debut
Miscellany
– 21 of Scotland’s selection are from Glasgow (12) and Edinburgh (9) – in the last 6 years that’s the equal highest tally of home-based players for any game excluding matches outside of normal Test windows for which no Exiles were available.
– Ireland’s lineup comprises 13 from Leinster, 5 from Munster, 3 from Connacht and 2 from Ulster.
– The only time that a more experienced XV (in terms of caps – 664) has started for Scotland under Gregor Townsend was against New Zealand in the 2022 Autumn Nations Series (670 caps).
– 16 of Scotland’s 23 came through the Scottish Rugby Academy system, the equal highest number for any game in the Townsend era.
– The starting XV have scored 116 tries for Scotland and the matchday 23 have a combined 136 tries – both record highs for teams selected since Toony took over.
If you missed Part 1 – previous meetings, scouting report and more – check it out .
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