2023 Mets Report Card: Kodai Senga, SP

KODAI SENGA, RHP

Player Data: Age: 30 (01/30/1993), B/T: L/R

Primary Stats: 29 GS, 12-7, 166 1/3 IP, 2.98 ERA, 1.220 WHIP, 202 SO, 77 BB
Advanced Stats: 142 ERA+, 3.63 FIP, 10.9 SO/9, 29.1 SO%, 11.1 BB%, 4.5 bWAR

2023 Salary: $14 million

Grade: A

2023 Review

The Kodai Senga hype started in the States after the 2022 Nippon Professional Baseball season.

The then 29-year-old had announced he was electing international free agency and would take his talents to Major League Baseball. The arms race for Senga was real, as he had dominated the NPB for the previous 11 seasons. In 1089 innings, he had a 2.59 ERA and a ridiculous 28.2 strikeout percentage.

Like other Japanese pitchers before him, Senga had a signature pitch to match his stellar numbers. The “ghost fork,” named by his competitors early in his career, was famous for floating in the strike zone and then diving at the last second.

With his ghost fork and impressive resume, Senga hit free agency after the 2022 World Series. The Mets pounced and signed him to a five-year, $75 million contract on Dec. 10, ending Senga’s free agency tenure in only one month.

Senga’s addition to the roster signified the Mets’ seriousness to compete after being eliminated by the Padres earlier in the postseason. He was signed to be the No. 3 starter in the rotation behind Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, providing another rock to a rotation with two aces at the top.

With a new contract and Mets’ season at hand, Senga quickly demonstrated he was more than just a No. 3 starter. In his first major league start, he struck out eight batters, allowed one run in 5 1/3 innings, and recorded his first major league victory.

Senga’s first start was just a taste of his future success. While he had a mediocre 4.15 ERA in his first month, he paired it with an 11.1 K/9 rate in 26 innings.

May was no different in the strikeout department. Senga struck out 38 batters in 29 innings and improved his season ERA to 3.44. He finished the month with a 2.79 ERA in five May starts.

Senga’s continued success in June and early July earned him a spot on the National League All-Star roster in his first major league season. He and Alonso were the only Mets’ representatives as the team had faltered by the end of June. Senga, however, didn’t pitch in the game.

The team’s overall decline had nothing to do with Senga. July was arguably his best month, as he finished with a 1.93 ERA in four starts. One of those four July starts came against the Diamondbacks, where Senga’s eliteness was on full display.

On July 5 against the Snakes, Senga struck out 12 batters and walked only one in eight innings of one-run ball. He threw 107 pitches, recording 10 whiffs from his ghost fork and 18 whiffs in total. It was the first of two starts in the majors where Senga struck out 12.

Kodai Senga reaches 200 strikeouts in his rookie season and gets a standing ovation from the Citi Field crowd ???? pic.twitter.com/asDKRaSWDQ

— SNY (@SNYtv) September 28, 2023

The second start where he struck out 12 came on Sept. 1 against the Mariners. He only allowed one run in that start as well, going seven innings in a 2-1 Mets win over the then postseason-hopeful M’s.

That start in September was a glance at another amazing month for the rookie. Senga finished the month with a 2.10 ERA in four starts, including another outstanding start against the Diamondbacks, where he struck out 10 in six scoreless innings.

An excellent finish in September capped an impressive rookie season for Senga. He finished 2023 with a 2.98 ERA in 29 starts and struck out 202 batters in 166 1/3 innings.

When all was said and done, Senga ended up being the ace of the 2023 Mets rotation. He led all Mets starters in innings pitched, ERA, ERA+, FIP, SO, K/9, and HR/9. The only aspect he struggled with was wild pitches, which he led the majors in with 14.

And Senga’s first season wasn’t just excellent —  it was historic. He became only the sixth Mets’ rookie to finish with an ERA lower than three, joining the likes of Jacob deGrom, Dwight Gooden, Jerry Koosman, Jon Matlack, and Tom Seaver.

Senga also became the 30th player in major league history to strike out 200 batters or more in his rookie season. The list Senga joined included Yu Darvish (2012), Daisuke Matsuzaka (2007), and Hideo Nomo (1995), three fellow rookies from Japan.

The most impressive factor of Senga’s 2023 season was his most hyped pitch coming across seas — the ghost fork. Senga had an absurd 59.5 whiff percentage on the pitch and recorded 110 of his 202 strikeouts with the pitch.

Overall, batters only hit .101 and slugged .147 against the ghost fork. Senga threw it 663 times, allowing only 18 hits and one homer the whole year — a solo shot from Jon Berti in September.

Needless to say, the Ghost Fork was debatably the best pitch in the majors last season.

2024 Outlook

Barring any big-time free agent signings in the 2023-2024 offseason, Senga will be the ace of the Mets rotation.

As stated above, he led the Mets’ staff in seven major categories and will only get better as he has one full season down pitching with the MLB-style baseball. There’s no reason to believe he won’t improve upon his 2.98 ERA from 2023.

It’s also possible that Senga could anchor the Mets’ rotation next season with another Japanese star. The Mets are rumored to make a big push toward Yoshinobu Yamamoto this offseason after he put up a 1.21 ERA in 23 starts last season for the Orix Buffaloes. Jon Heyman of the New York Post even went as far as to say the Mets may be favorites to land Yamamoto.

The Mets could go a more popular route with another Japanese star: Shohei Ohtani. Sure, he wouldn’t pitch until 2025, but he and Senga at the top of the rotation would give the Mets one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. Ohtani could also end the Mets’ woes at the DH.

Regardless of any signees, the position of ace will be hard to take away from Senga. He finished sixth among starting pitchers in bWAR (4.5) last season, and third among NL pitchers.

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