Israel’s Three Big Problems
As Hamas’s genocidal war against it continues, Israel faces three immediate problems: to rescue the hundreds of hostages Hamas has taken (some of whom are Americans), to destroy the terrorist force of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and to deter or defeat the threat Hezbollah poses from the north.
If Hezbollah does attack Israel, we will have to be prepared to commit U.S. forces to the fight.
(To avoid reader confusion I am using “Hezbollah,” the bowdlerized version of “Hizballah,” the name the group actually claims for itself. It literally translates to “the party of God.”)
Make no mistake about this war’s nature. Hamas are modern-day Nazis, killing babies, small children, women and the elderly, massacring defenseless civilians. At least 1,300 Israeli civilians were killed in the first day, including forty little children and babies in the kibbutz town of Kfar Aza. Rape and torture are among Hamas’ usual tactics and they are engaging in both regularly. (READ MORE from Jed Babbin: Don’t Believe Biden’s Border Ploy)
By those acts, Hamas has given up any claim to be members of the human race.
This column has never praised President Biden for anything, but this time he has done a lot the right way. His Tuesday speech was praised by many Israelis including a retired Israeli admiral I know.
Biden has moved the USS Gerald Ford carrier battle group close to Israel. USAF aircraft began delivering munitions by the second day of the war. Moreover, rumor has it that at least a couple of platoons of SEALs have been sent to Israel to aid in rescuing hostages.
But Biden never said the word “Iran” in his speech. He knows, as does the rest of the world, that Hamas is owned and controlled by Iran, a proxy force, yet he refused to blame them for the October 7th attack. The Biden administration denied reality on Sunday, saying that there was no evidence of Iran’s involvement.
Israeli forces have conducted limited raids into the Gaza Strip to capture prisoners, gather intelligence on where the hostages may be and how they can be rescued. The Israeli Defense Forces announced that the two top Hamas commanders, those involved in the attacks, have been killed. (READ MORE: Is Ally Support for Israel Firm?)
“Squadron 13,” the Israeli equivalent of our SEALs, have already been rescuing hostages and killing terrorists. One or more SEAL platoons are probably on the ground offering help but Squadron 13 probably won’t need it. They’re just as good as our guys who they train with regularly. And they’re not the only “Tier 1” Israeli special forces group.
The hostages include babies and small children. Several elderly people and Israeli soldiers were also captured. An unknown number of Americans — at least a dozen — are among the hostages.
Hostage rescue is dangerous for all involved. It requires actionable intelligence — i.e., accurate and immediately current — and the ability to deploy the rescue force with exceptional speed. Even if that is done, some or all the hostages at one place may be executed and others in different locations could also be murdered in retaliation for a successful rescue.
But the Israelis have to try. If they don’t the hostages will be murdered. Hamas may try to swap American hostages for Hamas people in our jails, but no negotiations to do so have been reported. While intelligence and other operations are taking place, Israel is preparing a massive ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. It will probably have begun before you read this.
Hezbollah is, in many ways, more dangerous than Hamas.
Israeli troops will face every sort of weapon Hamas has from sniper rifles to rocket-propelled grenades to improvised explosive devices — “IED”s — like those our troops had to face in Iraq.
Iran has almost certainly supplied Hamas with the “explosively-formed penetrator” mines that our guys encountered in Iraq. The “EFP” is a nasty device. The initial explosion both compresses enormously a metal penetrator to an extremely high level and then propels it against the bottom of a vehicle which it penetrates and destroys. Some of Israel’s combat vehicles are probably hardened against the EFPs, but many likely aren’t. (READ MORE: What Israel Needs to Do Now)
Hamas is infamous for hiding behind human shields, some of whom may be hostages. There will be extremely tough fighting in Gaza, street-by-street, house-to-house, and hand-to-hand. Israel is already trying to get civilians out of the northern area of Gaza where Hamas is believed to be concentrated. But two things are stopping the civilians from leaving.
First, Egypt has closed the border crossing to Gaza and has refused to allow Americans to pass into Egyptian territory unless food, water, and medical supplies are allowed to flow into Egypt. This is the act of an enemy, not a friend.
The Egyptians also don’t want Palestinians to cross their border, which is a more reasonable position. They don’t want the trouble the Palestinians — some of whom inevitably will be Hamas commanders and members — will bring into their nation.
Second, Hamas is ordering people not to leave. They want the cover of the civilians to hide behind.
Inevitably, there will be many civilian casualties. Israelis want to avoid that from happening but Hamas welcomes it. They want to broadcast videos of “innocent civilians” killed by Israelis. They did that to great effect in 2008-2009 when Israeli forces, in an operation called “Cast Lead,” invaded the Gaza Strip. The Hamas “fauxtography” depicted phony casualties and “war crimes” supposedly committed by Israelis. Be ready for a lot more of that.
Hezbollah, earlier this week, fired mortars into Israel which the Israelis answered with artillery fire. After another incident on Friday, Israeli drones have been striking at Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah, like Hamas, is a proxy force of Iran. They follow orders so only the ayatollahs and their Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (their principal terrorist agency) knows whether they will fully engage Israel.
Hezbollah is, in many ways, more dangerous than Hamas. It has a huge arsenal of longer-range rockets which can be fired against any Israeli city, causing hundreds or thousands of more civilian deaths.
Iran has been making threats to Israel, warning it to not counter-attack into the Gaza Strip. On October 10, Ayatollah Khamenei said, “From the military and intelligence aspects, this defeat [of Israel] is irreparable … It is a devastating earthquake. It is unlikely that the usurping regime will be able to use the help of the West to repair the deep impacts that this incident has left on its ruling structures.”
More ominously, Iran — through UN intermediaries — told Israel that it would intervene in the war if the Israeli invasion of Gaza goes forward.
Only Khamenei and his IRGC commanders know whether Hezbollah will be ordered to strike Israel with their missile arsenal. If they do, many Israeli cities and towns will be devastated. If Israel, by its drone strikes and strikes on Syrian airports, can deter Hezbollah is an open question. A two-front war may break out at any time. (READ MORE: The Gathering Middle Eastern Storm: Enduring History Lessons — Part One)
I remember the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, and what my late college roommate told me about it. Ed Atkins, then an F-4 back-seater, told me that his aircraft was being armed and fueled to fly into the fight. If Hezbollah fires its long-range missiles into Israel, U.S. intervention may be necessary to prevent Israel’s fall. If that is the case, we should throw the USS Gerald Ford’s aircraft and many more forces into the fight.
If Hezbollah does attack Israel, we will have to be prepared to commit U.S. forces to the fight. Standing with Israel is the only policy we should have now.
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