Sportsbooks have 'best Sunday of the season' in NFL Week 6
It was a wild Week 6 in the NFL, which saw the San Francisco 49ers lose to the Cleveland Browns (and lose several key players to injury), the Philadelphia Eagles fall from the ranks of the unbeaten and a safety crush the hopes of New England Patriots backers.
Here is a Week 6 betting recap in the NFL:
Week 6 NFL betting picture
Favorites: 9-4 against the spread
Overs: 3-10
49ers and Eagles lose outright as extremely public favorites
Early in the week, bettors were already loading up on the 49ers as 4.5- or 5-point favorites, before Deshaun Watson was ruled out. The line got as high as 49ers -10, before settling on 49ers -9.5, but the public couldn’t get enough of San Francisco.
Fair to say that the public likes the San Francisco 49ers to cover -9.5 today vs. the Browns:
91% of at @stationcasinos on 49ers
87% of bets on 49ers at @BetRivers
87% on 49ers at @BetMGM
85% on 49ers at @DKSportsbook— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) October 15, 2023
Over 91 percent of the wagers at Station Casinos in Las Vegas were on the 49ers to cover, and at national sportsbooks (BetMGM, DraftKings), the story was similar with 85-plus percent of wagers on San Francisco. At BetMGM sportsbooks, 49ers -9.5 was the most-bet Week 6 by both total dollars wagered and number of bets. The Browns won outright 19-17 and covered every number.
The Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) were in a similar boat against a New York Jets team missing both of its starting cornerbacks. But the Jets defense hung in against Jalen Hurts & Co., and would’ve at least covered the game … until Hurts threw an INT with under two minutes left, leading to a Jets TD and 20-14 outright win. It was another great game for the sportsbooks.
“Best Sunday of the year on our side of the counter,” Chuck Esposito, sportsbook director at Station Casinos, said via text. “Crazy finishes in Cleveland and for the Jets went our way. Having the Browns winning outright really prevented a lot of carryover to the afternoon games.”
Philadelphia losing outright especially helped sportsbook director Thomas Gable, whose Borgata sportsbook is in Eagles territory in Atlantic City.
“The Jets-Eagles was a monster game for us, and almost everyone was laying the 6.5 with the Eagles,” Gable said via text. “We did have some respected money come in on the Jets.”
Gable noted that the Lions-Bucs game and Vikings-Bears were two other big decisions that went his way.
“Best Sunday so far this season,” Zachary Lucas, retail sportsbook director at Twin Spires texted. “San Francisco/Eagles moneyline, parlays, teasers all crushed.”
Patriots safety swings the Raiders game
With 2:23 left in the game, the New England Patriots got the ball back on their 9-yard line down 19-17 to the Las Vegas Raiders. The spread had been as high as Raiders -3.5 and closed Raiders -3 at many books.
New England proceeded to move backwards, including a delay of game penalty, and then Mac Jones got sacked in the end zone for a safety to clinch a Raiders cover.
The safety was a mixed bag for sportsbooks.
“Patriots safety was not good for us,” John Murray, executive director of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook said via text. “But overall, the day and the weekend were great. We got some big underdogs to win outright and that’s what it takes.”
Esposito noted that the safety hurt, while Gable said that it was a “six-figure swing and not in our favor.”
“The safety to [end] the Pats game was most unwelcome in the PointsBet trading room,” Kevin Lawler, director of trading said. “We were looking for under 37 points there and that brought it just over the mark for us!”
Caesars Sportsbook was one of the few books I spoke with that needed the Raiders to cover, so they were pleased with the result. “We needed the Raiders so that was beneficial for us,” Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars, said on Sunday night. “Definitely one of the better Sundays this season. Lions and Bengals were our two worst results, but nothing compared to the 49ers and Eagles losing outright.”
Notable wagers that won
$330,000 on Jaguars -4
$235,128.21 on Texans ML +118
Notable wagers that lost
$220,000 on Titans +5.5
$220,000 on Panthers +14.5