Hamas is ‘using horrific imagery in Gaza to try and spark a regional war’

Hamas is banking on a ‘costly’ Israeli ground offensive in the Gaza Strip to drag other parties into a wider regional conflict, according to an expert on global terrorism.

Dr Hans-Jakob Schindler said that the militant group’s strategic aim is to create ‘horrific’ imagery from the Palestinian territory that will prompt other forces to enter the fray.  

The senior director of the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) spoke after Israel told 1.1 million people in northern Gaza to evacuate their homes as it ramps up its military response to Hamas’s mass incursion nine days ago.

Gaza has been pounded by nine days of Israeli air strikes amid reports of dire humanitarian conditions from international organisations including the United Nations.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said on Saturday that it is preparing for a ‘significant ground operation’ in Gaza from the ‘air, sea and land’.

Dr Schindler assesses that a large-scale Israeli ground offensive in the 25-mile long strip would be ‘phase two’ of Hamas’s plan, despite the militant group being no match for the IDF in military terms. 

‘What is 100% certain is that Hamas wants an Israeli incursion in order to reverse the victim-perpetrator image,’ he said.

‘Israel was the victim on October 7 but Hamas’s intent is to turn the picture in the region and beyond to Israel being the aggressor.  

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‘It is clear that part of Hamas’s overall strategy for this abhorrent terrorist attack is to force a large-scale Israeli reaction in Gaza.

‘The aim by Hamas seems to be to generate as many Palestinian casualties as possible in Gaza to generate political pressure forcing other groups such as Hezbollah, and potentially some Arab countries, to join the conflict and therefore create a multi-front confrontation for Israel.

‘This is, as usual for Hamas, a very cynical strategy that deliberately sacrifices innocent Palestinians for its terrorist aims.’

The CEP, a transatlantic think-tank, has identified Iranian proxies in the Middle East including Hamas and the Hezbollah militia, which is based over the border from northern Israel in Lebanon and is also active in Syria.

Jerusalem today announced the evacuation of residents from a 2km zone next to Lebanon following exchanges of fire between the IDF and Hezbollah.

Dr Schindler, who previously monitored sanctions on terror groups for the United Nations, told Metro.co.uk that a ‘wider war’ is part of Hamas’s gameplan, with Iran already heavily implicated in facilitating the group’s ability to carry out the surprise attack on southern Israel.

He said: ‘It’s hard to estimate Hamas’s remaining terrorist strength, but the amount of rockets it has fired and the amount of fighters who made the incursion into Israel was substantial.

‘According to the last figures I saw, the Israelis killed around 1,500 of the militants but somewhere between 1,000 and 2,000 returned with hostages to Gaza.  I don’t think anyone thought that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad would have had that amount of highly trained fighters capable of conducting such an incursion.

‘There is no way that Hamas could have carried this out without sustained Iranian support, training and co-ordination.

‘There just isn’t the material and expertise in Gaza to produce this amount of rockets and other arms.’

Dr Schindler said that the force strength of the UK-proscribed terror group was unknown but that the urban terrain and tunnel network under Gaza could make street-by-street fighting costly for the IDF.

Hamas is also holding hostage 199 Israelis who it seized during the suprise attack, which it carried out along with Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

The group has told civilians to ignore the Israeli evacuation order, which it described as ‘fake propaganda’.

‘The Israeli army will want to be careful of killing civilians, especially since Hamas is holding the Israeli hostages in Gaza,’ Dr Schindler said.

‘Hamas’s aim is not to win militarily but to force Israel into heavy fighting and produce horrific imagery from the conflict.

‘It is going to be extremely difficult and most likely very costly for the Israeli army, even if they are successful in significantly degrading some of the above-the-ground and underground infrastructure of Hamas.

‘In Hamas’s view strategic success is using the horror to force other state and non-state actors such as Hezbollah, which has so far only been targeting Israel with pin-pricks here and there, to join the conflict.

‘This is phase two of Hamas’s plan: a wider war. 

‘Unfortunately Israel has no choice but to do exactly what Hamas wants because if Jerusalem doesn’t act now and act forcefully against Hamas, it can count the days until this happens again.’ 

The Hamas-led attack took place after political divisions in Israel came to the fore and followed efforts to normalise relations between Israel and other Middle Eastern countries, including through the Abraham Accord.

‘The point here is that Hamas perceived Israel to be weak in the past couple of months and hence took advantage of this situation,’ Dr Schindler said.

‘Generating a multi-front conflict for Israel is also part of attempting to turn the attention away from the atrocities and massacres that Hamas conducted to create a new victim narrative for Hamas.

‘This also will put a lot of strain on the Abraham Accords as well as a potential Israeli-Saudi rapprochement, as all of these were detrimental to Hamas. The last thing that a terror group such as Hamas needs is peace and reconciliation. They exist through and in conflict only.

‘If things would be resolved peacefully, where would Hamas be at the end?

‘Therefore, the end goal here is not necessarily victory for Hamas but to ensure that conflict will continue.’

Military analyst Sean Bell told Sky News that the IDF may be planning to effectively cordon off Gaza City before sending in troops.

‘The next stage would be to go into the city itself,’ he said. ‘That would involve infantry operations, it would be incredibly dangerous.

‘If they were to do that either Hamas would be well dug in in which case it would be very costly or it might be that Hamas take off their uniforms and blend in with the population and head south, and the IDF is left in the middle of the city. It’s very difficult to see what that would achieve.’

Hamas responded to the evacuation warning by telling Gazans not to leave but to remain and ‘defeat the occupation’.

Spokesman Basem Naim said: ‘We have two options: To defeat this occupation or to die in our homes,’ 

The Gaza Ministry of Health said today that 2,670 civilians have been killed in Israeli strikes, with 9,600 others injured.

The Israeli military has said that more than 1,300 people have been killed in the country, with more than 3,000 people wounded. 

Israel has imposed a blockade of food, fuel and electricity into the strip ahead of the expected ground offensive. 

The Norwegian Refugee Council today called for a humanitarian corridor between Gaza and Egpyt to be opened to alleviate what it described as a ‘catastrophe’, which will fall in ‘hours, not days’.

The IDF said at the weekend that soldiers have collected evidence in Gaza that will ‘aid in locating hostages’ and the air force had been striking anti-tank missile launchers ‘immediately after they were used to attack Israel’. 

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