Diamondbacks vs. Phillies NLCS Preview & Pick
The MLB Postseason is upon us, and after a divisional round that saw a ton of upsets, we’re gearing up for an NLCS that boasts two red-hot Wild Card teams in the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadephia Phillies.
For Arizona, they swept out the Los Angeles Dodgers without breaking much of a sweat, while Philly beat down the once-perceived unbeatable Atlanta Braves in four games. We were on the money with our NLDS preview between the Phillies and Braves, correctly touting the Phillies to win the series in four games at +570.
Let’s see if we can make it two in a row. As Arizona eyes their first trip back to the World Series since 2001 and the Phillies look to repeat as National League Champions, here’s how we imagine the NLCS happening.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Starting Pitching Edge
The Diamondbacks and Phillies boast two elite starting pitchers who will give a neutral baseball fan a treat. In Game 1, Zack Wheeler will face off against Zac Gallen in a clash of two of baseball’s best arms. On a neutral field, this matchup could be considered a toss-up, but Wheeler comes in with more playoff experience and has the Philadelphia crowd behind him, which got into the Braves’ heads. Gallen’s home/away regular splits tell an interesting story, as his home ERA during the regular season sat at 2.47, rising to 4.42 on the road. A potential Game 5 matchup between these two would be a dogfight, but Wheeler takes the advantage in Game 1.
For Game 2, Merrill Kelly and Aaron Nola will face off, and both will come in confidently. Kelly has been lights out through two postseason games, allowing only a single earned run through 13.1 innings. Nola has also been dominant, allowing only two earned runs across 12.2 innings. Still, Nola’s outing against the Braves offense was telling as he continually battled through jams. Overall, he is the better pitcher and has the higher ceiling, and while Kelly’s dominance through two games can’t be overlooked, the Philly crowd uplifts Nola to his best. Advantage Nola.
Looking at potential Game 3 and 4 starters, the Phillies boast better depth. Ranger Suarez will likely take the ball in Game 3 and has been lights out in the postseason. Through two games, he’s only allowed four hits and a single run across a combined 8.2 innings after sporting a 1.23 ERA across five postseason appearances last fall. Game 4 could see some combination of Taijuan Walker, Cristopher Sanchez, or Matt Strahm, all of whom could combine for a strong outing. Arizona will likely put out Brandon Pfaadt in Game 3, which Suarez clears, and Game 4 could be a bullpen game for them. Again, advantage to the Phillies.
Edge: Phillies
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Relief Pitching Edge
All regular season, the Diamondbacks had a struggling bullpen. The deadline acquisition of Paul Sewald helped, but there is still an apparent lack of reliable depth outside of Kevin Ginkel. The Phillies bullpen has way more options and shutdown arms they can go to. Jose Alvarado throws triple digits and is one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball, Craig Kimbrel has years of postseason experience, and guys like Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Seranthony Dominguez, and Gregory Soto give the Phillies so much more depth they can count.
Edge: Phillies
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Starting Lineup Edge
If we break down position by position, outside of Corbin Carroll in left field, is there any position that the Diamondbacks are better at than the Phillies? Ketel Marte may have an edge over Bryson Stott at second base, but the gap is narrow if there is one. Christian Walker has been one of Arizona’s best hitters at first base, but he’s no match for what Bryce Harper brings, especially in October. Down the order, after Carroll, Marte, and Walker, the Diamondbacks’ offense is far from reliable. For Philly, their depth and talent are too much for Arizona to compete with unless they get scorching hot. Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, and JT Realmuto are veterans who have been exceptionally clutch for the Phillies either this postseason or last fall. Still, they are also getting significant contributions from young guys like Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, and Stott. As hot as Arizona has been, the Phillies are just that much hotter.
Edge: Phillies
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Bench Edge
When looking at Arizona’s depth, no one should be playing in this series. Jose Herrera, Pavin Smith, and Jace Peterson combined for six plate appearances, but none recorded a hit. In the regular season, none had a batting average above .210.
The Phillies come in with usable depth, as they haven’t been afraid to rotate their outfielders between Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache, and Brandon Marsh in the postseason. Edmundo Sosa and Jake Cave provide decent bats as pinch hitters, but the kicker is the potential return of Rhys Hoskins, who tore his ACL during spring training. A valuable piece of the Phils’ 2023 postseason run, he’s likely only able to be a pinch hitter, but he can be a dangerous hitter in a prominent spot if elevated to the roster.
Edge: Phillies
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Betting Odds
Series odds: Diamondbacks +150 | Phillies -178
Game 1 odds: Diamondbacks +136 | Phillies -162 | O/U: 7
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Pick
The Phillies have advantages with their starting rotation, bullpen, lineup, and bench, but their home-field advantage fuels their postseason run. After falling short in last year’s postseason, they are hungry to finish the job. I’m confident they understand the massive opportunity in front of them. Arizona has been a dangerous team, but Philly’s win against Atlanta was more meaningful to me than the D-Backs win over a Dodger club that seemed to cave after Arizona jumped out to a massive Game 1 lead. The Phillies are battle-tested, loaded with talent, hungry, and may even have seven road games, as reports are that many Phillies fans will be making the trip to Arizona for Games 3 through 5. The D-Backs could steal one, but this is the Phillies’ World Series to lose.
If, for some reason, the D-Backs pull an Orlando Arcia and give Bryce Harper bulletin board material, this will be over in four.
Pick: Phillies in 5 (+520)
Braves vs. Phillies Schedule & TV
Monday, Oct. 16
Game 1 | Diamondbacks at Phillies| 8:07 p.m. | TBS
Tuesday, Oct. 17
Game 2 | Diamondbacks at Phillies | 8:07 p.m. | TBS
Thursday, Oct. 19
Game 3 | Phillies at Diamondbacks | 5:07 p.m. | TBS
Friday, Oct. 20
Game 4 | Phillies at Diamondbacks | 8:07 p.m.| TBS
Saturday, Oct. 21
Game 5 | Phillies at Diamondbacks | 8:07 p.m.| TBS (if necessary)
Monday, Oct. 23
Game 6 | Diamondbacks at Phillies | 5.07 p.m.| TBS (if necessary)
Tuesday, Oct. 24
Game 7 | Diamondbacks at Phillies | 8:07 p.m.| TBS (if necessary)
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