MMO Free Agent Profile: Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP

SHOHEI OHTANI

Position: DH/SP
Bats/Throws: L/R
Age: 29 (7/5/1994)
2023 Traditional Stats (Hitting): 135 G, 599 PA, .304/.412/.654/1.066, 44 HR, 26 2B, 95 RBI, 151 H
2023 Advanced Stats (Hitting): 184 OPS+, 180 wRC+, 6.0 bWAR, 6.6 fWAR, 15.2 BB%, 23.9 K%, .342 BABIP, .428 xwOBA
2023 Traditional Stats (Pitching): 23 G, 10-5, 3.14 ERA, 1.061 WHIP, 167 K, 132 IP
2023 Advanced Stats (Pitching): 2.4 fWAR, 4.0 bWAR, 4.00 FIP, 3.85 xERA, 10.4 BB%, 31.5 K%

Rundown

At the beginning of August, it seemed as if Shohei Ohtani would make the case for having one of the greatest statistical seasons a major league player has ever produced. A known menace as the league’s premiere two-way player, Ohtani’s 2023 campaign was to be one for the record books and could still very well be, depending on how the off-season award voting shapes out.

Through August 4th, Ohtani hit .310 with an impressive on-base percentage of .413 and a slugging percentage of .685, accumulating a solid 1.098 OPS and 192 OPS+, all while hitting 40 home runs as a batter. On the pitching front, he maintained a solid 3.32 ERA, 135 ERA+ over 124 2/3 innings, striking out 160 batters.

Around the same time, a day after securing his second consecutive AL Player of the Month Award, he reached base four times, including hitting his 40th homer, making him the first starting pitcher in nearly 60 years to both hit a home run and steal a base in the same game.

At this point, Ohtani led the Majors in various categories, including home runs, triples, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, total bases, OPS, OPS+, and WAR. At one point, he had reached base in 23 of his last 34 plate appearances, a level of on-base success not witnessed in the majors for nearly two years.

By this time, he led the AL in position player WAR, despite being a designated hitter without any fielding contributions. This is significant since no DH has ever led their league in WAR. The 192 OPS+ at the time is considered one of the most impressive hitting stats an American Leaguer has delivered in the last half-century. And that’s just his hitting. He also excels as a pitcher, having led the Majors in fewest hits allowed per nine innings, ranking third in strikeout rate, and coming in at sixth in pitching WAR.

Shohei Ohtani launches his American League-leading 41st home run! pic.twitter.com/anvf2aSymZ

— MLB (@MLB) August 13, 2023

Unfortunately for Ohtani, his season ended up being cut short due to injury as he underwent surgery on his throwing elbow in September, nearly a month after being diagnosed with a torn UCL, as stated by Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo. Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who conducted the procedure in Los Angeles, said that Ohtani will have no restrictions as a hitter in 2024 and will resume pitching in 2025.

The 29-year-old Ohtani finishes his season with an impressive line of .304/.412/.654 and an AL-leading 44 home runs as a hitter. As a pitcher he notched 132 innings with a 3.14 ERA and 167 strikeouts. Ohtani holds a combined bWAR of 10, making him a strong contender for the AL MVP award. Arguably, his performance over the 2021-2023 seasons could be considered one of the greatest three-year runs in the history of major league baseball.

Contract

Ohtani signed a 1-year, $30 million contract to avoid arbitration, which was the largest increase in arbitration given to a player ever in the sport. After going all in and not trading him at the deadline, it seems as if Ohtani is ready to move on from the Angels and hit the free agent market.

Initially, sports executives predicted that Ohtani could sign the largest contract in baseball history at $500 million due to his elite play at the plate and on the mound. Before his UCL injury, he had the potential to surpass that financial milestone. However, he can still net close to $400 million, something only one player has secured before, that being Mike Trout, who inked a substantial $426.5 million extension with the Angels that started back in 2019.

Ohtani’s substantial contract value is due to the rarity of a player of his caliber. Two-way players are a common sight in lower levels of the game, but at the major league level, a two-way player is something of a novelty. Historically, players such as Brooks Kieschnick and Micah Owings received limited opportunities for pinch-hitting or relief roles and performed admirably within those constraints. However, their contributions paled compared to the consistent dual-role performance of Ohtani, who not only pitched every five or six days but also occupied a designated hitter spot in the lineup.

Recommendation

Over the past three years of Steve Cohen’s ownership of the team, he has demonstrated a willingness to take bold steps and open his wallet to strengthen the team he grew up rooting for. While some of these risks didn’t yield the desired results, Cohen remains prepared to invest in the ball club but now with a specific strategic approach, targeting the right player at the right price.

Shohei Ohtani unquestionably stands as the player for whom Cohen should be willing to write a substantial check. Doing so would provide the Mets with a dual-threat asset for the long term, aligning with Cohen’s vision of sustained success and enhancing the Mets’ brand. Since Cohen acquired the team, reports have already emerged indicating that the Mets are gearing up to pursue the Japanese superstar.

Ohtani brings exceptional starting pitching (beginning again in 2025) and an elite presence at the plate. Slotting Ohtani in the lineup alongside players like Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor instantly elevates the Mets’ batting order from good to elite. It’s a move the Mets should wholeheartedly embrace, not just for 2024 but also for the future.

The post MMO Free Agent Profile: Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP first appeared on Metsmerized Online.