Forde-Yard Dash: The One-Loss Path to the Playoff

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Dan Lanning is willing to bet that he can arrive at the airport 20 minutes before his flight departs and still make it:

First Quarter: Ranking the unbeatens

Second Quarter: The one-loss path to the Playoff

In the nine years of its existence, a total of 15 undefeated teams have made the College Football Playoff. Twenty-one have come in with one loss. None have ever made the field with two losses.

With that in mind, it’s time to take a look at the best one-loss paths to the Playoff. We covered the current unbeaten teams in the First Quarter, some of whom are going to be defeated in the weeks to come and enter the one-loss pool.

Who is best positioned?

Texas (11). Record: 5–1. AP ranking: eighth. The loss: to undefeated Oklahoma by four on a neutral field. Best win: at Alabama. Do the Longhorns control their own destiny: presumably. If Texas wins out to go 12–1, wins the Big 12 championship and in all likelihood wins a rematch with the Sooners in the process, that should be enough to make the Playoff. The last five times the Big 12 produced a 12–1 team, it played in the CFP (Oklahoma four times from 2015 to ’19 and TCU last year). Biggest challenge remaining in the regular season: at TCU on Nov. 11. This isn’t last year’s TCU, but remember: The Horned Frogs have beaten the Longhorns in seven of their last nine meetings.

Oregon (12). Record: 5–1. AP ranking: ninth. The loss: to undefeated Washington by three on the road. Best win: routing Colorado in Eugene. Do the Ducks control their own destiny: quite likely. If Oregon wins what has been the best conference in the country while going 12–1, that should earn a Playoff bid. To get there, Oregon would have defeated Washington State (4–2 with a win over Wisconsin), Utah (5–1 with a win over Florida), USC (6–1), Oregon State (5–1 with wins over Utah and UCLA) and presumably Washington. The Ducks would vault past Texas in the one-loss pool if all those things occur.

One or more teams from the Big Ten (13). The Dash is monitoring the potential three-way tie in the Big Ten East between No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Ohio State and No. 7 Penn State (in a potentially key development, Iowa’s beating Wisconsin on Saturday could help the Nittany Lions). In the not-outlandish case of a 12–1 league champion and two 11–1 teams from the same division, the Big Ten could have a case for multiple bids for the second year in a row—maybe even the unprecedented three-bid league, depending how things shake out. At this point it’s hard to see anyone beating those three teams in the regular season, except one another.

Alabama (14). Record: 5–1. AP ranking: 11th. The loss: at home to Texas. Best win: taking care of Mississippi, 24–10, in Tuscaloosa. Do the Crimson Tide control their own destiny: absolutely, difficult though it may be. At 4–0, Alabama is the last unbeaten in league play in the SEC West. The path is challenging, with Tennessee, LSU and Kentucky the next three opponents, and after that comes the Iron Bowl and a potential SEC championship game against No. 1 Georgia. But this is an improving team with a stellar defense. This is not the opponent the Bulldogs want to see in Atlanta come early December.

Oregon State (15). Record: 6–1. AP ranking: 12th. The loss: at Washington State by three. Best wins: beat Utah by 14 and UCLA by 12. Do the Beavers control their own destiny: in all likelihood. As is the case with Oregon, if Oregon State wins out, a 12–1 Pac-12 champ will be difficult to turn down. Of course, it would require the Beavers beating Washington, Oregon and perhaps one of those two a second time in the final three weeks of the schedule, so it wouldn’t come easy. But this is a balanced team that has a week off to prepare for the closing stretch.

Utah (16). Record: 5–1. AP ranking: 14th. The loss: at Oregon State. Best wins: over Florida and UCLA. Do the Utes control their own destiny: With games left against USC, Oregon and Washington, they should. (Oregon State could win a head-to-head tiebreaker for a spot in the Pac-12 title game, if it comes to that, but Utah would have a leg up on other one-loss teams in league play.) The Utes have endured an injury plague and produced their best offensive performance of the season against California on Saturday. Nobody wants to face Kyle Whittingham in Las Vegas for the league title.

USC (17). Record: 6–1. AP ranking: 18th. The loss: blown out at Notre Dame on Saturday. Best win: Arizona in double overtime. Do the Trojans control their own destiny: With an unbeaten Pac-12 record, yes. But at present this team isn’t playing anywhere near the level necessary to beat Utah, Washington, Oregon and UCLA, plus whoever it would face in the league title game. It will take a major improvement in several areas—but USC does have a potential Playoff path in front of it.

Missouri (18). Record: 6–1. AP ranking: 20th. The loss: by 10 to LSU at home. Best win: at Kentucky by 17. Do the Tigers control their own destiny: yes. If the Tigers win out, which would include slaying the Georgia dragon in Athens on the way to an SEC championship, they would probably make the Playoff. (The SEC champ has never been excluded from the Playoff field.) Is any of that likely? No. But as of today it’s in play.

A one-loss ACC team (19). If No. 4 Florida State goes undefeated, it will make the Playoff. No. 10 North Carolina would as well at 13–0, most likely. Throw in a loss for the league champ, and it gets murkier. What if the Seminoles are 12–0, with wins over LSU and Florida, and are upset in the league title game? What if the Tar Heels are 12–0 and lose to the Seminoles in said title game? What if No. 21 Louisville or No. 16 Duke makes it to Charlotte at 11–1 and beats Florida State or North Carolina for the title? A lot would depend on what’s happening elsewhere.

Tennessee (20). Record: 5–1. AP ranking: 17th. The loss: at Florida. Best win: over Texas A&M Saturday in Knoxville. Do the Volunteers control their own destiny: yes. But it’s not an easy destiny, with a playoff elimination game at Alabama on Saturday, at Kentucky on Oct. 28, at Missouri on Nov. 11 and hosting Georgia on Nov. 18. Then after all that Tennessee would have to beat someone (likely Alabama again) in the SEC championship game. Good luck.