Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: Who has the edge?
Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (5-2) and New England Patriots (2-5) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 8 game at Hard Rock Stadium (1 p.m., CBS):
When the Dolphins run: Miami’s No. 1 run game is coming off a tough outing in Philadelphia, where it was held to 45 rushing yards after the team was in the negative in this department at halftime. And there’s even more concern here now with Raheem Mostert missing practice with an ankle injury early in the week. This while the Dolphins will already be without rookie De’Von Achane. Jeff Wilson Jr. could end up factoring in after he didn’t get a carry in his season debut against the Eagles.
The Miami run game would get a huge boost if center Connor Williams can come back to anchor the offensive line after missing three of the past four games with an ailing groin. Left guard Isaiah Wynn is now out for weeks, and Lester Cotton entered for him when he left the Eagles loss.
The Patriots are 13th against the run. Christian Barmore’s play at nose tackle will be key, and New England has Ja’Whaun Bentley as a sound run stopper at middle linebacker. Safeties Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers are strong in run support. But the Dolphins were effective on the ground in their first meeting Week 2, rushing for 145 yards. Edge: Dolphins
When the Patriots run: The power run game of Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott has not been everything the Patriots would have imagined. Through seven games, New England ranks 27th in rushing yards. Stevenson is averaging 3.1 yards per carry, and Elliott 3.7.
The Dolphins are 19th against the run, and they held their own against the Philly ground game, outside of the 4 for 4 success rate of the Eagles on their “Tush Push” or “Brotherly Shove.” Miami also held New England to 3.5 yards per carry in the division rivals’ first meeting. Christian Wilkins, Zach Sieler, David Long Jr. and others will have to pack a similar punch. Edge: Dolphins
When the Dolphins pass: A lot of the advantage here rides on Dolphins star receiver Tyreek Hill’s availability as he’s missing practice early in the week with a hip injury. Nonetheless, the Patriots are down standout rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez and elite pass rusher Matthew Judon.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has maintained his NFL lead in passing yards (2,092), passer rating (110.4) and yards per attempt (9.1), even after Philadelphia kept him and the Dolphins passing attack under control last Sunday. Williams’ availability will be crucial in calling out protections, something backup center Liam Eichenberg appeared confused with on some of the Eagles’ sacks and pressures of Tagovailoa.
The Patriots’ 12th-ranked pass defense, under coach Bill Belichick would likely hone in on Hill if he plays. They limited him to a season-low 40 receiving yards in the first meeting. If Hill can’t go, that attention is likely allotted to Jaylen Waddle, meaning other pass catchers will likely need to step up. Edge: Dolphins
When the Patriots pass: New England quarterback Mac Jones is coming off a strong outing in the upset over the Buffalo Bills. He was 25 of 30 for 272 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner to former Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki. He shares the ball among wide receivers Kendrick Bourne and Demario Douglas, tight end Hunter Henry and Stevenson out of the backfield for the No. 21 passing offense.
All eyes will be on star offseason acquisition Jalen Ramsey to see if he can make his Miami debut three months out from surgery on the meniscus in his left knee. Fellow Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard is recovering from the groin injury that kept him out against Philadelphia, and he has historically had his way against Jones. Nik Needham may also make his season debut, but safety Jevon Holland has been in concussion protocol, putting his status in doubt.
The Dolphins’ pass rush has been stellar. Their sack leaders: Bradley Chubb 4, Zach Sieler 4, Andrew Van Ginkel 4, Christian Wilkins 3.5, Emmanuel Ogbah 2.5, Jaelan Phillips (who’s missed three games) and Jerome Baker with 1.5. The Chubb matchup against Patriots left tackle Trent Brown is one to watch. Edge: Dolphins
Special teams: Last time these two teams met, it was probably the Dolphins’ worst special teams outing, having one field goal blocked on a unique play design by New England and with kicker Jason Sanders missing another one that could’ve sealed the victory without making it interesting at the end. This is what the Patriots can do to you in this facet of the game. Return specialist Braxton Berrios has provided a solid presence for the Dolphins in that area this season, though, but former Patriots punter Jake Bailey also shanked one at the Eagles. Miami also gave up a big kick return to Boston Scott in Philadelphia. Edge: Patriots
Intangibles: It’s tough to imagine the Dolphins losing two straight here, and the Patriots aren’t catching them off guard hot off an upset win over Buffalo. New England also played the Dolphins close in Foxborough, but the advantage is now with the Dolphins after winning on the road in the first matchup. McDaniel will not have his team overlooking New England between the Eagles and Chiefs game. And Miami is wearing its all-white throwback uniforms. Edge: Dolphins
PREDICTION: Dolphins 30, Patriots 13