FSU hits road with chance to make emphatic statement against Wake Forest | Analysis
TALLAHASSEE — Florida State is on the road for the first time in a month, a chance to extend the winning streak to 14 games and make one more impression on the College Football Playoff committee before the initial rankings are released on Halloween.
The No. 4 Seminoles (7-0, 5-0 ACC) are set to play at Wake Forest (4-3, 1-3) on Saturday at noon and will be on ABC for a seventh time. We take a look at key questions ahead:
How much of a concern is Wake’s “slow mesh”?
Wake’s rush offense, which accumulates 145.1 yards per game, ranks just 80th in the FBS. This may look like the same Wake that uses a “slow mesh” RPO — an exaggerated read by the quarterback before deciding to keep, hand off or pass — but it’s far less efficient without Sam Hartman (transferred to Notre Dame). The concern is less than normal, but don’t expect an easy day for FSU.
The Demon Deacons have been very inconsistent running the ball, from a dreadful outing (31 carries for 35 yards at Virginia Tech) on Oct. 14 to a good performance (41 carries for 172 yards and two touchdowns vs. Pittsburgh) last Saturday.
FSU coaches expect injured Wake QB Mitch Griffis to play, but the Seminoles also could face backup Santino Marucci. Neither Griffis nor Marucci have been much of a run threat, instead handing off or throwing. Another typical danger: Wake converting on third-and-short and building slow, methodical drives. But the Demon Deacons are 90th in the FBS on third-down conversions (37%), while FSU is 22nd in third-down stops (32%).
Still, it’s tough for a scout-team quarterback to replicate. And it takes time seeing it first-hand.
“I felt like last year, that was probably one of my worst games of my career,” FSU linebacker Tatum Bethune said. “I know now what I’m coming into this week. I know what to be prepared for.”
How much better is FSU’s production at tight end than 2022?
The tight end group was the most impressive in August camp. Improvement was expected as were more two-TE sets. But consider this:
FSU’s tight ends caught a combined 39 passes for 529 yards and four touchdowns in 2022. Camren McDonald led the group with 21 catches for 312 yards and a touchdown.
Through seven games in 2023: The tight ends have already caught more passes (40) for 480 yards and have matched the four touchdowns. Jaheim Bell has 22 catches for 291 yards and two touchdowns, while Kyle Morlock has 11 receptions for 111 yards. Markeston Douglas and Preston Daniel each have touchdown receptions.
“Those guys, it’s a total buy in of, ‘We’re going to find a way and whatever is deemed necessary we’re going to do it,’” FSU offensive coordinator Alex Atkins said.
How worrisome are the fourth-down misses vs. Duke?
A definite area of emphasis moving forward. FSU failed on a pair of fourth-and-shorts against Duke, including one from the Seminoles’ 36-yard line. Both times the Blue Devils’ defensive line won the battle up front.
Coach Mike Mike Norvell loves to go for it on fourth down, reasoning he says is backed by analytics as well as the need to retain possession and put the offense in position to come away with points. The Seminoles are 8 of 14 (57.1%) on fourth downs, 46th in the FBS.
“We’re trying to maximize the possessions we have,” Norvell said. “You look in college football, especially playing really good teams, you’ve got to capitalize on them.”