‘Five Nights at Freddy’s’ Is Set for a Big Box Office Launch, and No One Should Be Surprised

The weekend before Halloween is set to be a good one for the box office with the debut of Universal/Blumhouse’s “Five Nights at Freddy’s,” a horror film based on the indie video game series that has blown by exhibitors’ expectations for ticket presales despite its day-and-date release on Peacock.

Independent projections for “Five Nights at Freddy’s” are predicting an opening weekend of at least $50 million. But theater owners who spoke with TheWrap say there’s huge upside for the film and the potential for a launch as high as $80 million.

Those optimistic predictions should be taken with a lot of salt — exhibitors were predicting $100 million-plus figures for “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” that the still successful concert film didn’t reach — but the consensus within the industry is that “Five Nights” has a good shot of beating the $49.4 million opening of “Halloween Kills,” which also opened day-and-date on Peacock in 2021.

If it does, it won’t come as a surprise to anyone familiar with the devoted fanbase that “Five Nights at Freddy’s” has built since the series debuted in 2014. Created by Scott Cawthon, who serves as a writer-producer on the film, the original game saw players take the role of a security guard at a Chuck E. Cheese-esque restaurant who has to fight for his life when Freddy Fazbear and his fellow animatronic animals come alive with murderous intentions.

“Five Nights” became a viral sensation thanks to YouTube and Twitch stars who played the game and screamed in terror at its infamous jumpscares. The first episode of a YouTube Let’s Play series of the game by Mark “Markiplier” Fischbach has racked up 113 million views on YouTube.

In the ensuing years, “Five Nights” has preserved its cultural dominance among gamers thanks to the ever-growing mythology Cawthon has built through a slew of sequels and spinoffs, prompting fans to build fan theories about the franchise’s cryptic backstory. The series found a new surge in popularity in 2021 with the spinoff game “Five Nights At Freddy’s: Security Breach,” which according to VG Insights generated $52.3 million in gross revenue for Cawthon’s game development and publishing company ScottGames.

The names Freddy Fazbear, Chica, Bonnie and Foxy may not have the cross-generational recognition of ones like Mario and Sonic, but “Five Nights at Freddy’s” has built a huge Gen Z following and has been a gateway title for a new generation of horror lovers. In a year when studios have invested heavily in decades-old series like “Indiana Jones” and “The Exorcist” and have had middling-to-poor box office returns thanks in part to lack of interest from younger audiences, “Five Nights” is an example of a major Hollywood studio playing directly to IP enjoyed primarily by the under-25 crowd.

Time for some caution, though: While this may be a big weekend for “Five Nights,” several signs also point to a potentially front-loaded run for the film, the foremost being its streaming day-and-date release.

When Universal released “Halloween Kills” simultaneously in theaters and on Peacock two years ago — and did it again with “Halloween Ends” in 2022 — studio insiders said Universal was counting on hardcore horror buffs to still buy tickets. The idea was that the release of a new “Halloween” film on Peacock would also draw eyes to the streaming service, which is trailing many of its competitors in subscriber counts.

Last year, “Halloween Ends” was projected for a $50 million opening and launched below that at $40 million, while setting movie viewership records on Peacock. A similar result at both the box office and on streaming should be in the cards for “Five Nights at Freddy’s,” and would be seen as a win by Universal.

But for theaters, there’s a solid chance that “Five Nights” may see a big second weekend dropoff after the fans get their fill through Halloween on Tuesday. As was seen with “The Eras Tour,” which dropped 66% the week after its $92.8 million opening, there’s a limit to how far a film can go when it has high traction with one demographic subset but low four-quadrant support. Combined with the availability on Peacock, there may not be much staying power for these killer robots.

Still, any overperformance this weekend will be welcome given what’s ahead on the release slate. With the “Captain Marvel” sequel “The Marvels” showing soft presales two weeks out from release, it’s possible that theaters may not see another $100 million-plus opening weekend for the rest of 2023 and possibly through the winter. Films like Disney’s “Wish” and Warner Bros.’ “Wonka” aren’t expected to come near the $453 million domestic total posted by “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” last year, let alone the $684 million of “Avatar: The Way of Water.” Any help from non-tentpole films will be welcomed by exhibitors.

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