NFL Week 8 Picks: Which Heavy Favorites Will Survive Halloween Scare?
The pendulum was due to swing back at some point, and it did in Week 7 of the NFL season, making the task of coming up with Week 8 picks even more daunting.
Favorites dominated through the first six weeks of the NFL season. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the average margin of victory in Weeks 1 through 6 was the largest in nearly 10 years. As such, favorites had been cleaning up entering Week 7. Things started to creep back toward the norm in Week 7, though, with underdogs covering in eight of 13 games.
That might not seem like a huge number, but also consider this: The public side was absolutely decimated. As Ben Fawkes noted, the public went 0-8 ATS on sides that got at least 70% of the bets at DraftKings Sportsbook. That does include a couple of heavy public underdogs (Packers, Lions) who couldn’t cover their respective numbers. Not only that, but big favorites like the Bills and 49ers lost outright as favorites of at least a touchdown.
Credit to NESN.com’s Ricky Doyle, who was able to navigate the minefield, relatively speaking, to go 6-7 in last week’s ATS picks. His partner in crime, Mike Cole, was chewed up and spit out with one of his worst performances ever.
What does that mean for Week 8? Mike and Ricky gave their early leans and best bets in this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast.
First, here’s the damage from Week 7.
Here are their NFL Week 8 against-the-spread picks for all 16 games this weekend.
THURSDAY, OCT. 26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (-9.5) Buffalo Bills, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Bills.
Ricky: Bills.
Feels like a get-right spot for the Bills, who admittedly haven’t looked good at all the last two weeks, especially in a loss last week to New England. Baker Mayfield is banged up, though, as is Chris Godwin. Also might just make sense to roll with the AFC in these interconference matchups given how much better that group has been this season. –MC
SUNDAY, OCT. 29
(-3) Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Panthers.
Ricky: Texans.
Not only are the Panthers losing. They’re losing big, with four of their six losses coming by double-digits. The Texans, meanwhile, have the NFL’s best spread differential, suggesting the market still is trying to figure out Houston’s true colors. Interesting quarterback matchup, too, with the 2023 No. 1 overall pick, Bryce Young, facing the No. 2 pick, C.J. Stroud, the latter of whom has performed much better in his rookie season with Houston. –RD
Los Angeles Rams at (-6.5) Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m.
Mike: Rams.
Ricky: Rams.
When you look at the numbers for these two teams, it’s much closer than you might think. The Rams are a top-15 team by DVOA, while the Cowboys just sneak into the top 10. Despite the Rams’ hiccup last week, these two teams might be closer than we realize, making 6.5 points a pretty hefty spread. Add in the potential of a lookahead for Dallas (they play Philly next week), and I’ll take LA. –MC
(-1.5) Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Packers.
Ricky: Packers.
It’s been a frustrating season for Green Bay, particularly on offense, a unit plagued by inconsistency and ill-timed mistakes. It’s entirely possible Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who loves to blitz, draws up a game plan that flusters Jordan Love and company. But this is a fade spot, with the Vikings coming off a Monday night win over the 49ers. Getting back Jaire Alexander and/or De’Vondre Campbell would be huge for the Packers’ defense. –RD
(-1) New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Saints.
Ricky: Saints.
The Colts scoring 38 last week against Cleveland was the biggest surprise of the week. They did so with a handful of big plays, uncharacteristic both for their own offense and the Browns’ defense. –MC
New England Patriots at (-9) Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Mike: Patriots.
Ricky: Patriots.
Are the Patriots back?! I’m not there after their Week 7 upset win over the Bills. It’s still a deeply flawed New England team with issues on both sides of the ball. But they might be capable of making this matchup ugly enough to sneak under the number. It’s also not hyperbolic to say this game could determine the direction of the Pats’ season, with the NFL trade deadline, a trip to Germany, a bye and some winnable matchups in the weeks ahead. –RD
(-3) New York Jets at New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets.
Ricky: Jets.
The schedule unfolded quite nicely for the Jets, who were on bye last week and return for a “road” game in their home building. Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off a divisional clash that went down to the wire last week. More importantly, the Jets are just a better team with an elite defense that should have its way with a G-Men offense that mustered just 14 points last week against Washington. –MC
(-2.5) Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars.
Ricky: Jaguars.
It’s always uncomfortable betting against Pittsburgh as a home underdog, a spot in which the Steelers usually thrive. But the offensive floor still is way too low, especially against an upstart Jaguars team that ranks fourth in defensive DVOA. Maybe the Jags really are good? –RD
(-3) Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans.
Ricky: Falcons.
What a hilarious football game. People will actually go and watch this by choice. Anyway, Mike Vrabel is 5-0 against the spread off a bye, and his teams typically perform well as underdogs, so Titans it is. –MC
(-7) Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, 1 p.m.
Mike: Commanders.
Ricky: Commanders.
The Eagles need to be on their talons this week. Their upcoming schedule before Christmas — vs. Dallas, Bye, at Kansas City, vs. Buffalo, vs. San Francisco, at Dallas, at Seattle — is brutal, rendering this a classic lookahead spot that’s made more unsettling by Jalen Hurts’ apparent knee injury. –RD
Cleveland Browns at (-4) Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks.
Ricky: Seahawks.
You can throw on the Seahawks, which might be good news for Cleveland if Deshaun Watson was set to play. He’s not. Instead, it’s P.J. Walker, who has objectively been one of the worst QBs in the NFL this season. Seattle does, however, have an elite run defense which is Cleveland’s strength, and there are injuries in the backfield, too. Seattle will struggle to score, too, but the Seahawks should get just enough done to cover the number. –MC
(-8.5) Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Ravens.
Ricky: Cardinals.
The Ravens made a statement last week against the Lions. That typically means an inflated number, especially with the Cardinals coming off four straight double-digit losses. Honestly, I’m not sure how Arizona keeps this within the number given the clear mismatch. But something doesn’t feel right. Maybe it’s all the Halloween candy I’ve been eating. –RD
(-7) Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs.
Ricky: Chiefs.
The Chiefs’ passing game unsurprisingly is rounding into form, and I’m not going to overreact to one stingy week from a Broncos pass defense that has been atrocious. The KC offense is miles ahead of the Packers’ unit that struggled in Denver last week. –MC
Cincinnati Bengals at (-3.5) San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Bengals.
Ricky: 49ers.
Brock Purdy is in the concussion protocol, which means Sam Darnold could be thrust into action. Not ideal, obviously, but it won’t matter if the Bengals, who rank 31st in pass block win rate, can’t protect Joe Burrow against a 49ers pass rush that ranks third on Pro Football Focus. –RD
Chicago Bears at (-8.5) Los Angeles Chargers, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Chargers.
Ricky: Chargers.
Tyson Bagent did all that was asked of him last week, and the Bears won. But they didn’t ask much of him. The Chargers, for all their faults, should be able to have their way with Chicago. If they build an early lead, how exactly does Bagent get the Bears back into this thing? –MC
MONDAY, OCT. 30
Las Vegas Raiders at (-8) Detroit Lions, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Lions.
Ricky: Lions.
Nice, soft landing spot for Detroit after its Week 7 setback in Baltimore. The Lions’ offense, led by Jared Goff, is much better at home. And this could be a coming-out party for running back Jahmyr Gibbs given Las Vegas’ struggles against the run and in limiting yards after the catch. –RD