A full invasion of Gaza is just hours away – and it could spiral into a proxy war between US and Iran
ISRAEL is on the tip of its invasion into Gaza – there is no more holding back.
The only alternative is to let Hamas survive in some way, and Israel has made it clear the terror group must be destroyed.
The only way this is possible is to move into Gaza.
Defence forces have spent almost two weeks at the border, waiting for the green light to wipe out Hamas in what is likely to be a difficult and bloody conflict.
On Wednesday night Israeli tanks stormed into northern Gaza in a well-publicised move, but the reality is the army has been doing smaller raids on a nightly basis that have not been widely spoken about.
Troops have been carrying out what is known in the business as “shaping operations”, in which they prepare for war — taking out enemy communications and ammunition dumps
Israel already claims to have killed Hamas leaders so they may well have identified certain tunnels, bunkers and civilian houses where they were hiding.
Military assets
It’s surprising that Israel has not yet launched its full ground invasion and I am convinced it intended to begin ten days ago — until America intervened and asked for a delay.
The hostages taken on October 7 have delayed the invasion as the whole thing gets pushed back 24 hours, then again, with Hamas using the leverage to give hope to the West that all the captives will be released.
The delay has also allowed America — worried about wider conflict in the Middle East — to get its military assets in place.
It has flown in lots of aircraft, including F16s, F18s and A10s, to military bases and deployed far more ships in the area.
The Americans look as if they will create three naval task groups, one based around the aircraft carrier Gerald R Ford in the Mediterranean, one based on the carrier Eisenhower in the Gulf, and one based around the helicopter carrier the USS Bataan in the Red Sea.
All of these will give the US awesome striking power if they think they need it.
The USS Carney last week intercepted missiles fired toward Israel from Iran-based Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The fact that America defended Israeli airspace would not have been lost on other Middle Eastern countries.
The US is also concerned about the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza and wants to get in more aid through the Rafah border crossing with Egypt before the invasion, America is in a difficult situation because it wants to support Israel and feels Hamas must be destroyed, but equally they want to contain the conflict to Gaza and prevent it from spreading to the wider Middle East.
There is a real risk that the whole region will become involved.
Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad figures met this week to discuss resistance in Gaza.
They talk all the time but it’s interesting that they have met so publicly to make the talks seem more dramatic.
Once Israel invades, there could be a massive uprising on the West Bank, and Hezbollah could attack from Lebanon into northern Israel.
The Israeli defence force is confident it can fight on three fronts, with almost half a million troops mobilised, but there is a very real danger of the situation spiralling out of control.
Iran is weak internally, with the threat of a popular uprising, but it may find itself drawn into the war because of the actions of other groups it supports, such as Hezbollah, which could attack Israel from Lebanon.
I don’t think that Iran wants to get involved but they may find it impossible not to if general fighting breaks out all around Israel’s borders.
If Iran does become entangled, the conflict is likely to turn into a proxy war between America and Iran because the US will have to defend Israel.
Hamas didn’t realise how “successful” it would be on October 7 or that it would cause such outrage that Israel would say “we will destroy you”.
The terror group is now fighting for its survival and holds hostages it didn’t really want because it had hoped for military hostages and ended up with several old people and children instead.
All bets are off
This is a real issue for them because they have to keep them alive — they are no good to them dead — and it is hard to keep anyone alive in Gaza right now.
Hamas will hope the situation stalls the attack but Israel will only play that game as far as the Americans lean on them.
They have no intention of letting terrorists set their agenda for the attack.
The troops waiting to invade were mentally ready to go ten days ago and you cannot keep an army cranked up for long because you have to keep refuelling, maintaining, rotating troops in and out, and so on.
Forces can lose their fighting edge quite quickly.
The head of the Israeli military has been asking the government to either give them the go-ahead or stand some troops down.
Unless the political will to wipe out Hamas changes — and that is incredibly unlikely — the full invasion is probably just hours away.
Once that takes place, all bets are off for what will happen next.
This is the most unpredictable period in the Middle East since the end of the First World War.