‘American Fiction’s’ festival win streak might foretell an Oscar victory in this category

On Monday, “American Fiction” picked up another Audience Award for narrative feature, this time at the Middleburg Film Festival. This comes one month after its surprise People’s Choice Award victory at the Toronto International Film Festival. It’s also won the audience prize at the Mill Valley Film Festival in a tie with “Rustin.” Prior to its TIFF triumph, Cord Jefferson‘s directorial debut barely registered in the Oscar odds, but since then, it’s moved to ninth place in Best Picture and cracked the top five in Best Adapted Screenplay, while Jeffrey Wright has surged to sixth place in the Best Actor rankings. If it snags all three of these nominations, its best chance at a win may come, fittingly, in writing.

Based on the novel “Erasure” by Percival Everett, “American Fiction,” which Jefferson wrote, follows Thelonious “Monk” Ellison (Wright), a novelist whose books have never flown off the shelves. Frustrated with the mainstream’s appetite for Black stereotypes, Monk, using a pseudonym, writes a novel as a joke using every offensive trope in the book (no pun intended). But the joke’s on him because the manuscript sparks a bidding war and the book becomes a bestseller, giving Monk, at least, the monetary windfall he’s never had. The film is a hilarious, withering satire that’s equally warm and tender. And after one sees it, it’s very easy to get how it’s been lapping up these audience prizes. It is, yes, a crowd-pleaser.

SEE ‘American Fiction’ wins top prize at Middleburg Film Festival: Are the Oscars next?

And if history is anything to go by, “American Fiction” has the write right stuff to win screenplay. Recent anointed crowd-pleasers that have won the aforementioned audience awards are “Green Book” (2018) and “Belfast” (2021). What do they have in common? They won screenplay Oscars in ostensibly close races. In hindsight, “Green Book’s” Best Original Screenplay win isn’t surprising since the film ended up taking the top award and was snubbed in Best Director, so the screenplay win was part of its Best Picture package. At the time, it was second in the odds, behind the witty and verbose “The Favourite.” “Belfast,” meanwhile, was the odds-on favorite to win original screenplay, but it hit a speed bump toward the end when “Licorice Pizza” beat it on its home turf at the BAFTAs.

If you’re thinking, “Cool, but these are original screenplays,” you just need to go back a bit further for a case in adapted. “The Imitation Game” (2014) also won these three audience awards and then picked up the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar over three-time Oscar winner “Whiplash,” which the academy punted to adapted from original, and “The Theory of Everything,” which defeated “The Imitation Game” at BAFTA.

But the difference is that these three films were all top two in their respective screenplay races throughout the season. “American Fiction” is currently in fourth place in the adapted screenplay odds, but its lower standing can be attributed to the fact that the film wasn’t really on the radar pre-festivals. It’s making up that ground now. However, it has three big players ahead of it to take down: “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things,” the last of which is penned by Tony McNamara, who co-wrote “The Favourite” (“The Zone of Interest” is in fifth). “Oppenheimer,” “Flower Moon” and “Poor Things,” in that order, are top three in the Best Picture and Best Director odds (Jefferson is in 11th in the latter).

Needless to say, it’s a tall order, but “American Fiction’s” sharp script and underdog status in general fit the mold of a screenplay winner while a top dog takes the top prize. But who knows? Maybe in a year of very heavy hitters and A-list names, this is the little film that could, the “discovery” a la “CODA” (2021), that could grab more than just screenplay.

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