More Americans than ever say they support political violence, and most of them are Republicans

Part of the horror of mass shootings such as the one that occurred in Lewiston, Maine, on Wednesday is their unpredictability. What can’t be predicted can’t be stopped or prevented, which is one of the reasons why we so easily fall into despair at their occurrence: “If only someone had seen the warning signs.” We can’t divine what’s in the shooter’s head or what specific set of circumstances will set him off (it’s almost always a “he”) to commit violence. We may look for reasons or motives after the fact, but we’re almost never provided the critical information to make those judgments beforehand. 

Some acts of violence are predictable, however. It’s a sad testament that this nation has allowed a substantial subset of its population to become inured to the idea of violence as a way of resolving differences. But it’s far worse when one of our political parties actually relies on stoking violent impulses in its adherents as a deliberate, intentional strategy. That is not normal, and it’s dangerous.

Several recent surveys (conducted by the same institute) of public opinion in this country indicate that support for political violence has dramatically increased over the past three years, most significantly and substantially among those Republicans who support Donald Trump. These sentiments happen to be dovetailing with the increasing possibility that Trump will be judged criminally liable in some fashion within the next 12 months. Assuming Trump’s embrace of violent and incendiary rhetoric increases commensurately with his general pattern when his personal interests are threatened, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that there is a strong likelihood of violent incidents in connection with, approaching, or in the aftermath of the 2024 election.

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