Brian Daboll's cowardly 4th-down decision against Jets helped the Giants squander a 99.9 percent win probability

Even while playing with a third-string quarterback — against an amazing New York Jets defense — the New York Giants should have added a win to their record in Week 8.

That third-stringer, Tommy DeVito, didn’t do much to help in relief of an injured Tyrod Taylor. But because the Giants’ own defense played an amazing game and Saquon Barkley was his normal reliable self, the G-men had a 99.9 percent win probability with 1:19 left in the game, according to ESPN Analytics.

In just a matter of five game minutes, though, that probability spike went from one side to the next as the underdog Giants found a way to give the game away. And while there’s enough blame to go around for how that happened, most of it has to go to head coach Brian Daboll.

The Giants had a 99.9% win probability at one point vs. the Jets.

They lost. pic.twitter.com/ILszivMAcV

— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) October 29, 2023

At the point they were most likely to win, the Giants held a 10-7 lead with possession on second-and-4 at the Jets’ 20. The Giants failed to gain a first down on the next two plays, but they still had a 96.1 percent chance of winning with 28 seconds left and a crucial decision for Daboll on fourth-and-1. Either go for it and attempt to end the game right there, or kick a field goal to go up by six.

Daboll choose the latter, and it backfired spectacularly. Graham Gano missed the kick, and Zach Wilson, who had been bottled up all game, led the Jets into position for the game-tying field goal as time expired.

Wilson finds Lazard and spikes it in time!

: #NYJvsNYG on CBS
: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Quwvdzpx7G pic.twitter.com/bM88jN0N0F

— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2023

Greg Zuerlein sends it to OT!

: #NYJvsNYG on CBS
: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Quwvdzpx7G pic.twitter.com/u5E8m1nnbZ

— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2023

It’s easy to criticize Daboll for the decision in hindsight. Had Gano simply made the kick, we likely aren’t having this conversation. The game wouldn’t have been over, but it would have been more unlikely for Wilson to lead the Jets to a touchdown. And there was no guarantee the Giants would have converted on fourth down.

But that’s not the point. There were a number of reasons for the Giants to pass on a field goal attempt, starting with the fact this exact decision backfired on Daboll earlier in the game. In the first quarter, before Taylor was injured, the Giants had a fourth-and-1 on the Jets’ 29 and opted to kick a field goal down 7-3, and Gano missed that kick.

Under normal circumstances it may have been easy to brush the first miss off as a rare error by a typically reliable kicker, but the circumstances around this game weren’t normal. NorthJersey.com’s Art Stapleton reported before the game Gano was playing through pain from a swollen knee that requires surgery. Not to mention, the game was being played in rain. Also, you have Saquon Barkley!

If there was any set of circumstances for Daboll to go for it on fourth-and-1, this was it and he still made the same bad decision.

Brian Daboll explains kicking a field goal late in regulation and says that Graham Gano is "alright" when asked if the kicker is healthy:

"That's the decision we made. It didn't work out." pic.twitter.com/ws9UNXOByo

— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) October 29, 2023

Daboll said after the game he accepts responsibility for things not working out in the Giants’ favor, and he said Gano is “alright” when asked if the kicker is healthy, but that won’t likely make Giants bettors feel any better. Whether they had the team’s moneyline at +140 odds (BetMGM), or picked them against the three-point spread, both bets went up in smoke when the Jets won in overtime.

To make matters worse, the Jets probably shouldn’t have gotten that opportunity. The refs never properly spotted the football after Wilson completed his final pass of regulation, allowing enough time for the Jets to spike it.

“eh… good enough” https://t.co/FORQunFsMD pic.twitter.com/SENunoFM0N

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 29, 2023

It was just a rough outcome all around, and that wouldn’t have been possible if Daboll didn’t make such a cowardly decision on fourth down.