Window narrows for tropical depression or storm to form near Bahamas; odds spike for disturbance in Caribbean

A short-lived tropical depression or potentially a short-lived Tropical Storm Vince could still develop near the Bahamas, but that window is narrowing, forecasters said Monday. The National Hurricane Center is also tracking an area in the eastern Caribbean.

The system near the Bahamas was producing gale-force winds and expected to move west-northwest Monday, then north and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. As of 2 a.m. Monday, its odds of developing further had dropped to 30% in the next two to seven days, down from 70% just 24 hours earlier.

Odds have dipped due to the fact that the system is nearing an area of dry air and strong upper-level winds, both of which hinder storm development.

Meanwhile, conditions look more favorable for development of a tropical depression in the central or southwestern Caribbean this week. The potential depression could form from an area of low pressure that was located in the eastern Caribbean on Monday. As of 2 a.m., it had a 40% chance of developing in the next seven days, up from 20% a day earlier.

The storm that was once Hurricane Tammy dissipated Sunday.

So far this season in the Atlantic, there have been 19 named storms, seven of which were hurricanes. Of those, three were major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above.

Those were Hurricane Lee, a rare Category 5; Hurricane Franklin, a Category 4; and Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend region at Category 3 strength on Aug. 30.

The remaining storm names for 2023 are Vince and Whitney. If all those names end up being used this season, the National Hurricane Center would turn to the supplemental list of names from the World Meteorological Association. In previous years, the Greek alphabet was used for additional storm names — which had only happened twice before — during the record-shattering hurricane seasons in 2005 and 2020.

Hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30.